Spread: Warriors (-6.5)

● quote just now

Sports→BasketballCloses: about 11 hoursLiquidity: $176.1KOfficial 24h Vol: $253.7KEvent: Heat vs. Warriors

Indicative prices · just now · Buy/sell quotes are shown in the orderbook.

52.5¢

Warriors

47.5¢

Heat

1.0¢

Spread

anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets33Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 62%💡 1 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot

24h sample:6 trades$117.6K tracked50% 🐋source coverage 46%BUY/SELL known 100%

tape 173 min agoofficial metadata 3 min ago

Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYHeat$75.4K@ 47¢·SineNooneEI

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN

What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

−$98.7K

tracked

$117.6K

1 verified profitable wallet: Heat · $18.8K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?

1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 62% · priority 0

Since latest large flow: +0.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence

•Observed tape is 173 minutes old.
•Less than 11h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution

OPEN

Trading

Orders accepted

Deadline

2026-11-06 03:00 UTC

Event constraint

Not verified

Resolution source: https://www.nba.com/

Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Warriors" if the Warriors win the game by 7 or more points.

•Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Heat". If the game ends in a tie, this market will resolve to "Heat".

Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming NBA game between Heat and Warriors, originally scheduled for Thursday, November 5, 2026 at 10:00 PM ET (as of creation of the first market related to the event): This market will resolve to "Warriors" if the Warriors win the game by 7 or more points. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Heat". If the game ends in a tie, this market will resolve to "Heat". If this market's outcome was definitively determined under its rules by the listed resolution sources before abandonment, that outcome will stand. Otherwise, the following no-result provisions apply. If the game is canceled, does not start by Saturday, November 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or is abandoned with no official result by that time, this market will resolve 50-50.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow

mooseborzoi3 linked markets · $10.2K gross

0xf34e…391f2 linked markets · $255 gross

HomeRunHazard2 linked markets · $57 gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Heat@ 48.0¢3h ago

15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp

LARGE FLOWBUY Heat@ 47.0¢4h ago

15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED +0.0pp

LARGE FLOWBUY Heat@ 47.0¢7h ago

15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp6h STALLED +0.0pp

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes

Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Warriors; negative values favor Heat. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.

1hWarriors · $0

6hHeat · $98.7K

24hHeat · $117.6K

Warriors price VWAP

Volume-weighted Warriors price. Heat fills are converted to the complementary Warriors probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.

Current52.5¢

VWAP 24h53.0¢▼ below by 0.5pp

VWAP 7d53.0¢

Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

Loading…

Warriors price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢

90¢

85¢

80¢

75¢

70¢

65¢

60¢

55¢