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Rolex Paris Masters: Tommy Paul vs Quentin Halys

● quote just now
Sports→TennisCloses: 7 daysLiquidity: $205.3KOfficial 24h Vol: $260.0KEvent: Rolex Paris Masters: Tommy Paul vs Quentin Halys

Indicative prices · just now · Buy/sell quotes are shown in the orderbook.

66.5¢
Tommy Paul
33.5¢
Quentin Halys
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection16Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets12Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority49Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 76%💡 5 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:66 trades$115.2K tracked6% 🐋source coverage 44%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 6 min agoofficial metadata 1 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Tommy Paul · $801 net·5 wallets·$6.6K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYTommy Paul$47.0K@ 75¢·tennischamp

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WATCH — NO CONFIRMED SETUP
What the tape says

Quentin Halys pressure: $18.7K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
−$18.7K
6h
−$16.6K
tracked
$115.2K

5 verified profitable wallets: Tommy Paul · $801 net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 76% · priority 49

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •No hard data-quality flag; still verify rules, news and orderbook depth.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Quentin Halys or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-11-12 09:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Tommy Paul and Quentin Halys in the Rolex Paris Masters, originally scheduled for November 5, 2026 at 4:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Tommy Paul' if Tommy Paul advances against Quentin Halys. This market will resolve to 'Quentin Halys' if Quentin Halys advances against Tommy Paul. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by November 19, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
BaccaratRoulette2 linked markets · $2.8K gross
neutralwave232 linked markets · $15 gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Tommy Paul@ 75.0¢7h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp6h INVALIDATED -5.0pp
Latest book event: Quentin Halys UP 2.5pp · near-book depth $5.5K → $80 · 22s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Tommy Paul; negative values favor Quentin Halys. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hQuentin Halys · $18.7K
6hQuentin Halys · $16.6K
24hTommy Paul · $48.1K

Tommy Paul price VWAP

Volume-weighted Tommy Paul price. Quentin Halys fills are converted to the complementary Tommy Paul probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current66.5¢
VWAP 24h71.88¢▼ below by 5.4pp
VWAP 7d71.88¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Tommy Paul price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$68.8K
70¢
$13.3K
65¢
← now
$10.4K
60¢
$22.7K
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 75¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYQuentin Halys$10.0K@ 36.0¢
Luzzzer0x2180…08f0
🐋—21 minutes ago
BUYQuentin Halys$12.5K@ 36.93¢
ch27er0x61a3…e508
🐋—21 minutes ago
BUYTommy Paul$15.1K@ 76.0¢
tennischamp0x8bfe…2d74
🐋—about 7 hours ago
BUYTommy Paul$47.0K@ 75.0¢
tennischamp0x8bfe…2d74
🐋—about 7 hours ago

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Set 1 Winner: Tommy Paul vs Quentin Halys
60.5¢$4.3Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Set Handicap: Tommy Paul (-1.5) vs Quentin Halys (+1.5)
44.5¢$3.8Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Game Spread: Tommy Paul (-3.5) vs Quentin Halys (+3.5)
37.0¢$1.5Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Paul vs. Halys: Match O/U 22.5
68.5¢$1.4Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Tommy Paul vs. Quentin Halys: Total Sets O/U 2.5
42.0¢$951priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Paul vs. Halys: Match O/U 21.5
60.5¢$19priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Paul vs. Halys: Match O/U 23.5
50.0¢$17priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Paul vs. Halys: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5
99.5¢$8priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

tennischampTommy Paul$64.7K
BUY VWAP 75.27¢·4 fills
ch27erQuentin Halys$12.5K
BUY VWAP 36.93¢·1 fill
LuzzzerQuentin Halys$10.0K
BUY VWAP 36.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.