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Rolex Paris Masters: Ben Shelton vs Tommy Paul

● quote just now
Sports→TennisCloses: 7 daysLiquidity: $322.6KOfficial 24h Vol: $758.3KEvent: Rolex Paris Masters: Ben Shelton vs Tommy Paul

Indicative prices · just now · Buy/sell quotes are shown in the orderbook.

99.95¢
Ben Shelton
0.05¢
Tommy Paul
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection12Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets8Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority48Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 89%💡 14 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:293 trades$374.6K tracked2% 🐋source coverage 55%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 153 min agoofficial metadata 2 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Ben Shelton · $6.9K net·14 wallets(1🐋)·$82.9K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:SELLBen Shelton$18.7K@ 89¢·Luzzzer

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

Ben Shelton pressure: $10.2K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
+$10.2K
6h
+$26.6K
tracked
$374.6K

14 verified profitable wallets: Ben Shelton · $6.9K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 89% · priority 48

Since latest market sweep: -48.9pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Observed tape is 153 minutes old.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Ben Shelton or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-11-13 13:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Ben Shelton and Tommy Paul in the Rolex Paris Masters, originally scheduled for November 6, 2026 at 8:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Ben Shelton' if Ben Shelton advances against Tommy Paul. This market will resolve to 'Tommy Paul' if Tommy Paul advances against Ben Shelton. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by November 20, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
Paul9739732 linked markets · $8.1K gross
caspar12482 linked markets · $80 gross
0x9e3e…f8822 linked markets · $54 gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

MARKET SWEEPBUY Tommy Paul@ 49.0¢1h ago
15m STALLED -3.0pp1h UNAVAILABLE
LARGE FLOWBUY Tommy Paul@ 55.0¢10h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp6h STALLED -2.0pp
Latest book event: Ben Shelton UP 7.3pp · near-book depth $40.4K → $41.0K · 32s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Ben Shelton; negative values favor Tommy Paul. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hBen Shelton · $10.2K
6hBen Shelton · $26.6K
24hBen Shelton · $10.9K

Ben Shelton price VWAP

Volume-weighted Ben Shelton price. Tommy Paul fills are converted to the complementary Ben Shelton probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current99.95¢
VWAP 24h46.2¢▲ above by 53.8pp
VWAP 7d46.2¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Ben Shelton price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$73.1K
90¢
$34.4K
85¢
$37.8K
80¢
$0
75¢
$2.2K
70¢
$7.9K
65¢
$4.1K
60¢
$3.1K
55¢
$14.7K
50¢
$55.8K
45¢
$126.8K
40¢
$14.8K
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 45¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
SELLBen Shelton$15.5K@ 99.9¢
kkookkoo0x26b4…b8a9
🐋—3 minutes ago
SELLBen Shelton$12.7K@ 99.9¢
ch27er0x61a3…e508
🐋—7 minutes ago
SELLBen Shelton$18.7K@ 89.19¢
Luzzzer0x2180…08f0
🐋—25 minutes ago
BUYBen Shelton$10.0K@ 47.68¢
Luzzzer0x2180…08f0
🐋—about 3 hours ago
BUYTommy Paul$11.5K@ 55.0¢
ferrariChampions20260xfe78…0319
🐋—about 11 hours ago

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Set 2 Winner: Ben Shelton vs Tommy Paul
0.05¢$2.6Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Ben Shelton vs. Tommy Paul: Total Sets O/U 2.5
99.95¢$2.0Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Shelton vs. Paul: Match O/U 23.5
99.95¢$1.9Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Shelton vs. Paul: Match O/U 21.5
99.95¢$134priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Game Spread: Tommy Paul (-0.5) vs Ben Shelton (+0.5)
50.0¢$26priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Shelton vs. Paul: Set 2 Games O/U 9.5
99.95¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Shelton vs. Paul: Set 2 Games O/U 10.5
0.05¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Shelton vs. Paul: Set 2 Games O/U 8.5
99.95¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

LimousinBen Shelton$30.4K
BUY VWAP 66.04¢·10 fills
ferrariChampions2026Tommy Paul$20.8K
BUY VWAP 55.0¢·5 fills
ferrariChampions2026Ben Shelton$13.1K
BUY VWAP 46.0¢·3 fills
LimousinTommy Paul$11.3K
BUY VWAP 55.31¢·9 fills
dmoralezBen Shelton$10.6K
BUY VWAP 84.32¢·6 fills
LuzzzerBen Shelton$10.0K
BUY VWAP 47.68¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.