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Set Handicap: Carlos Alcaraz (-1.5) vs Taylor Fritz (+1.5)

● quote 13s ago
Sports→TennisCloses: 7 daysLiquidity: $0Official 24h Vol: $18.5KEvent: Rolex Paris Masters: Taylor Fritz vs Carlos Alcaraz

Indicative prices · 13s ago · Buy/sell quotes are shown in the orderbook.

0.5¢
Carlos Alcaraz
99.5¢
Taylor Fritz
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection4Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets0Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution0Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 69%
24h sample:5 trades$3.0K trackedsource coverage 17%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 29 min agoofficial metadata 12 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYTaylor Fritz$1.9K@ 52¢·coolz122

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
+$131
6h
−$2.8K
tracked
$3.0K

No verified profitable-wallet confirmation in the observed sample.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 69% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Observed tape is 29 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-11-13 18:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Carlos Alcaraz" if Carlos Alcaraz wins by 2 or more sets than Taylor Fritz, based on the final completed score. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Taylor Fritz."

•If the match begins but is not completed due to retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve 50-50, unless the outcome of this market has already been unconditionally determined by the completed portion of play under the match format published by the tournament organizer for that round. For example, if the deciding set has begun when the match ends, Carlos Alcaraz can no longer win by 2 or more sets, and this market will resolve to "Taylor Fritz."

Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Carlos Alcaraz and Taylor Fritz in the Rolex Paris Masters, originally scheduled for November 6, 2026 at 1:00PM ET. This market will resolve to "Carlos Alcaraz" if Carlos Alcaraz wins by 2 or more sets than Taylor Fritz, based on the final completed score. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Taylor Fritz." If the match begins but is not completed due to retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve 50-50, unless the outcome of this market has already been unconditionally determined by the completed portion of play under the match format published by the tournament organizer for that round. For example, if the deciding set has begun when the match ends, Carlos Alcaraz can no longer win by 2 or more sets, and this market will resolve to "Taylor Fritz." If the match is canceled before play begins, or a result has not been determined by November 20, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve 50-50. Resolution will be based on official ATP results.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
Edu123452 linked markets · $236 gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.discovery

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Carlos Alcaraz; negative values favor Taylor Fritz. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hCarlos Alcaraz · $131
6hTaylor Fritz · $2.8K
24hTaylor Fritz · $2.8K

Carlos Alcaraz price VWAP

Volume-weighted Carlos Alcaraz price. Taylor Fritz fills are converted to the complementary Carlos Alcaraz probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current0.5¢
VWAP 24h48.01¢▼ below by 47.5pp
VWAP 7d48.01¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Carlos Alcaraz price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$4
50¢
$0
45¢
$3.0K
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
← now
$0

VPOC = 45¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
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🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
No whale activity

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Rolex Paris Masters: Taylor Fritz vs Carlos Alcaraz
33.0¢$1.0Mpriority63Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Set 1 Winner: Taylor Fritz vs Carlos Alcaraz
44.0¢$5.8Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Fritz vs. Alcaraz: Match O/U 22.5
50.0¢$2.1Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Fritz vs. Alcaraz: Match O/U 23.5
62.0¢$1.6Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Game Spread: Carlos Alcaraz (-3.5) vs Taylor Fritz (+3.5)
50.0¢$927priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Taylor Fritz vs. Carlos Alcaraz: Total Sets O/U 2.5
46.0¢$258priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Set 2 Winner: Taylor Fritz vs Carlos Alcaraz
40.5¢$57priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Fritz vs. Alcaraz: Match O/U 21.5
60.5¢$8priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

No observed $10K+ whale buys

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.