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Spread: Canadiens (-1.5)

● quote 33s ago
Sports→HockeyCloses: about 6 hoursLiquidity: $0Official 24h Vol: $44.4KEvent: Canadiens vs. Maple Leafs

Indicative prices · 33s ago · Buy/sell quotes are shown in the orderbook.

32.5¢
Canadiens
67.5¢
Maple Leafs
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets33Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution63Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 64%💡 1 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:3 trades$24.1K tracked33% 🐋source coverage 54%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 178 min agoofficial metadata 11 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYMaple Leafs$21.4K@ 68¢·ferrariChampions2026

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
$0
6h
−$20.4K
tracked
$24.1K

1 verified profitable wallet: Maple Leafs · $21.4K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 64% · priority 0

Since latest large flow: -1.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 178 minutes old.
  • •Less than 6h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-11-08 00:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.nhl.com/scores
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Canadiens" if the Canadiens win the game by 2 or more goals.

•Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Maple Leafs".

Read full resolution rules

In the NHL game, scheduled for November 7 at 7:00 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Canadiens" if the Canadiens win the game by 2 or more goals. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Maple Leafs". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. The result will be determined based on the final score including any overtime periods and shootouts. In the event of a shootout, one goal will be added to the winning team's score for the purpose of resolution.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Maple Leafs@ 69.0¢5h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Canadiens; negative values favor Maple Leafs. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hCanadiens · $0
6hMaple Leafs · $20.4K
24hMaple Leafs · $18.6K

Canadiens price VWAP

Volume-weighted Canadiens price. Maple Leafs fills are converted to the complementary Canadiens probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current32.5¢
VWAP 24h32.0¢▲ above by 0.5pp
VWAP 7d32.0¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Canadiens price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
← now
$24.1K
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 30¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYMaple Leafs$21.4K@ 68.0¢
ferrariChampions20260xfe78…0319
🐋—about 5 hours ago

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Canadiens vs. Maple Leafs
53.5¢$13.6Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
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Spread: Maple Leafs (-2.5)
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Canadiens vs. Maple Leafs: O/U 7.5
30.5¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Spread: Canadiens (-2.5)
20.5¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

ferrariChampions2026Maple Leafs$21.4K
BUY VWAP 68.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.