Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026?

● quote 78 min ago
CultureCloses: 5 monthsLiquidity: $100.9KOfficial 24h Vol:
0.1¢
YES
99.9¢
NO
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets0Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution99Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 75%
24h sample:5 trades$38 trackedsource coverage unavailableBUY/SELL known 100%
tape 320 min agoofficial metadata 5319 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:SELLNO$1.0K@ 100¢·0xf833…1a5f

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
$0
6h
$0
tracked
$38

No verified profitable-wallet confirmation in the observed sample.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 75% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • Executable quote is 78 minutes old.
  • Observed tape is 320 minutes old.
  • Official market metadata is 5319 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
climax
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-12-31 00:00 UTC
Event constraint
Mutually exclusive
Resolution source: Not supplied by the market
Read full resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the title of the film with the highest 2026 gross according to the "Gross" column on https://www.boxofficemojo.com/year/2026/?grossesOption=calendarGrosses once data for December 31 is made available. Note: This market is about the movie's domestic calendar gross in 2026 - dates outside of 2026 will not count toward this movie's gross. In the event of an exact tie the film that comes first alphabetically will be considered the winner. If there is no final data available by January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

LifecycleMarket stage. discovery = low volume early stage. climax = high volume + price near resolution (>85% or <15%). resolving = deadline within 24h. active = normal trading.climax

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h+$0
6h+$1
24h+$1

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current0.1¢
VWAP 24h0.1¢▲ above by 0.0pp
VWAP 7d0.2¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

Loading…

YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
← now
$2.8K

VPOC = 0¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…
Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
No whale activity

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Will Avengers: Doomsday be the top grossing movie of 2026?
7.5¢$75.4Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of 2026?
0.1¢$64.6Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026?
0.1¢$53.2Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be at least 900m by August 31?
80.5¢$52.0Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" 2nd Weekend Box Office be less than 180m?
97.5¢$6.1Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026?
0.1¢priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026?
0.1¢priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026?
0.1¢priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

No observed $10K+ whale buys

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.