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BNP Paribas Nordic Open, Qualification: Jacob Fearnley vs Alexander Shevchenko

● quote 227 min ago
Sports→TennisCloses: 7 daysLiquidity: $621.4KOfficial 24h Vol: $179.8KEvent: BNP Paribas Nordic Open, Qualification: Jacob Fearnley vs Alexander Shevchenko

Indicative prices · 227 min ago · Buy/sell quotes are shown in the orderbook.

1.0¢
Jacob Fearnley
99.9¢
Alexander Shevchenko
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets26Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution30Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 73%💡 6 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:55 trades$163.6K tracked2% 🐋source coverage 91%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 242 min agoofficial metadata 229 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Jacob Fearnley · $1.4K net·6 wallets·$5.3K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:SELLAlexander Shevchenko$94.3K@ 100¢·robustmst

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

TOO LATE — DO NOT CHASE
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
$0
6h
+$42.4K
tracked
$163.6K

6 verified profitable wallets: Jacob Fearnley · $1.4K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 73% · priority 0

Since latest large flow: +34.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Executable quote is 227 minutes old.
  • •Observed tape is 242 minutes old.
  • •Official market metadata is 229 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-11-15 12:30 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Jacob Fearnley and Alexander Shevchenko in the BNP Paribas Nordic Open, Qualification, originally scheduled for November 8, 2026 at 7:30AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Jacob Fearnley' if Jacob Fearnley advances against Alexander Shevchenko. This market will resolve to 'Alexander Shevchenko' if Alexander Shevchenko advances against Jacob Fearnley. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by November 22, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

ANTI CHASEBUY Alexander Shevchenko4h ago
Outcome checks pending
LARGE FLOWBUY Alexander Shevchenko@ 66.0¢5h ago
15m STALLED -2.0pp1h UNAVAILABLE
Latest book event: Jacob Fearnley DOWN 7.5pp · near-book depth $40 → $343 · 1s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Jacob Fearnley; negative values favor Alexander Shevchenko. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hJacob Fearnley · $0
6hJacob Fearnley · $42.4K
24hJacob Fearnley · $44.4K

Jacob Fearnley price VWAP

Volume-weighted Jacob Fearnley price. Alexander Shevchenko fills are converted to the complementary Jacob Fearnley probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current1.0¢
VWAP 24h19.83¢▼ below by 18.8pp
VWAP 7d19.83¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Jacob Fearnley price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$4.0K
65¢
$1.3K
60¢
$8
55¢
$855
50¢
$12.5K
45¢
$30.1K
40¢
$3.7K
35¢
$13.9K
30¢
$1.4K
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$150
5¢
$46
0¢
← now
$95.6K

VPOC = 0¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
SELLAlexander Shevchenko$94.3K@ 99.9¢
robustmst0xebfd…fd63
🐋—about 4 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

robustmstAlexander Shevchenko$49.8K
BUY VWAP 52.78¢·10 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.