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Rolex Paris Masters: Ben Shelton vs Carlos Alcaraz

● quote just now
Sports→TennisCloses: 7 daysLiquidity: $239.6KOfficial 24h Vol: $537.9KEvent: Rolex Paris Masters: Ben Shelton vs Carlos Alcaraz

Indicative prices · just now · Buy/sell quotes are shown in the orderbook.

41.0¢
Ben Shelton
59.0¢
Carlos Alcaraz
2.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection12Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets49Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority57Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 74%💡 6 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:115 trades$183.0K tracked2% 🐋source coverage 34%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 5 min agoofficial metadata 2 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Carlos Alcaraz · $6.2K net·6 wallets·$12.8K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYCarlos Alcaraz$29.2K@ 78¢·big8betz

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

REVIEW Carlos Alcaraz SETUP
What the tape says

Carlos Alcaraz pressure: $21.8K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
−$21.8K
6h
−$18.9K
tracked
$183.0K

6 verified profitable wallets: Carlos Alcaraz · $6.2K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
2.0¢displayed spread

Workable spread; verify depth and the $10K slippage estimate below.

Data confidence 74% · priority 57

Since latest large flow: -17.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •No hard data-quality flag; still verify rules, news and orderbook depth.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Carlos Alcaraz or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-11-15 14:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Ben Shelton and Carlos Alcaraz in the Rolex Paris Masters, originally scheduled for November 8, 2026 at 9:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Ben Shelton' if Ben Shelton advances against Carlos Alcaraz. This market will resolve to 'Carlos Alcaraz' if Carlos Alcaraz advances against Ben Shelton. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by November 22, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
ch27er2 linked markets · $10.0K gross
0x479e…91c32 linked markets · $4.7K gross
quavoo2 linked markets · $741 gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Carlos Alcaraz@ 77.0¢57m ago
15m STALLED +0.0pp
Latest book event: Ben Shelton UP 7.0pp · near-book depth $30.6K → $21.8K · 11s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Ben Shelton; negative values favor Carlos Alcaraz. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hCarlos Alcaraz · $21.8K
6hCarlos Alcaraz · $18.9K
24hCarlos Alcaraz · $33.1K

Ben Shelton price VWAP

Volume-weighted Ben Shelton price. Carlos Alcaraz fills are converted to the complementary Ben Shelton probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current41.0¢
VWAP 24h25.75¢▲ above by 15.2pp
VWAP 7d25.75¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Ben Shelton price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
← now
$21.1K
35¢
$673
30¢
$13.1K
25¢
$12.7K
20¢
$135.4K
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 20¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYBen Shelton$10.8K@ 41.3¢
Luzzzer0x2180…08f0
🐋—23 minutes ago
BUYCarlos Alcaraz$29.2K@ 77.93¢
big8betz0xbfd4…526f
🐋—about 1 hour ago

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Set Handicap: Carlos Alcaraz (-1.5) vs Ben Shelton (+1.5)
45.0¢$36.0Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Game Spread: Carlos Alcaraz (-3.5) vs Ben Shelton (+3.5)
39.0¢$9.2Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Set 1 Winner: Ben Shelton vs Carlos Alcaraz
36.5¢$5.0Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Shelton vs. Alcaraz: Match O/U 21.5
50.0¢$2.7Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Shelton vs. Alcaraz: Match O/U 22.5
73.5¢$2.4Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Ben Shelton vs. Carlos Alcaraz: Total Sets O/U 2.5
50.0¢$1.1Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Shelton vs. Alcaraz: Match O/U 23.5
60.5¢$269priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Set 2 Winner: Ben Shelton vs Carlos Alcaraz
34.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

big8betzCarlos Alcaraz$34.2K
BUY VWAP 77.94¢·2 fills
MadridTimeBen Shelton$24.2K
BUY VWAP 23.19¢·11 fills
LuzzzerBen Shelton$10.8K
BUY VWAP 41.3¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.