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Set Handicap: Jessica Pegula (-1.5) vs Marta Kostyuk (+1.5)

Sports→TennisCloses: 7 daysLiquidity: $0Official 24h Vol: $2.5KEvent: WTA Finals, Group A: Marta Kostyuk vs Jessica Pegula

Indicative prices · Buy/sell quotes are shown in the orderbook.

—
Jessica Pegula
—
Marta Kostyuk
—
Spread
anomaly40Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection100Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets33Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution0Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 50%💡 1 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:1 trades$7 trackedsource coverage 0%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 55 min agoofficial metadata 30 min ago

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
−$7
6h
−$7
tracked
$7

1 verified profitable wallet: Marta Kostyuk · $7 net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
—displayed spread

A two-sided quote is unavailable; check each available bid/ask below.

Data confidence 50% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Indicative price is unavailable.
  • •Two-sided executable spread is unavailable.
  • •Only 1 tracked trades / 1 wallets in the 24h sample.
  • •Tracked source coverage is only 0%.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-11-17 18:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.wtatennis.com/scores
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Jessica Pegula" if Jessica Pegula wins by 2 or more sets than Marta Kostyuk, based on the final completed score. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Marta Kostyuk."

•If the match begins but is not completed due to retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve 50-50, unless the outcome of this market has already been unconditionally determined by the completed portion of play under the match format published by the tournament organizer for that round. For example, if the deciding set has begun when the match ends, Jessica Pegula can no longer win by 2 or more sets, and this market will resolve to "Marta Kostyuk."

Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Jessica Pegula and Marta Kostyuk in the WTA Finals, Group A, originally scheduled for November 10, 2026 at 1:00PM ET. This market will resolve to "Jessica Pegula" if Jessica Pegula wins by 2 or more sets than Marta Kostyuk, based on the final completed score. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Marta Kostyuk." If the match begins but is not completed due to retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve 50-50, unless the outcome of this market has already been unconditionally determined by the completed portion of play under the match format published by the tournament organizer for that round. For example, if the deciding set has begun when the match ends, Jessica Pegula can no longer win by 2 or more sets, and this market will resolve to "Marta Kostyuk." If the match is canceled before play begins, or a result has not been determined by November 24, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve 50-50. Resolution will be based on official WTA results.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
ChungChung12 linked markets · $2.6K gross
0xdbdd…a5de3 linked markets · $1.8K gross
extra182 linked markets · $1.5K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.discovery

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Jessica Pegula; negative values favor Marta Kostyuk. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hMarta Kostyuk · $7
6hMarta Kostyuk · $7
24hMarta Kostyuk · $7

Jessica Pegula price VWAP

Volume-weighted Jessica Pegula price. Marta Kostyuk fills are converted to the complementary Jessica Pegula probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current—
VWAP 24h58.0¢
VWAP 7d58.0¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Jessica Pegula price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$7
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 55¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
No whale activity

Related Markets · same event first, then category

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Kostyuk vs. Pegula: Match O/U 23.5
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Marta Kostyuk vs. Jessica Pegula: Total Sets O/U 2.5
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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

No observed $10K+ whale buys

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.