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Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from November 12 to November 14, 2026?

● quote 1 min ago
Closes: 2 minutesLiquidity: $27.9KOfficial 24h Vol: $141.0KEvent: Elon Musk # tweets November 12 - November 14, 2026?

Indicative prices · 1 min ago · Buy/sell quotes are shown in the orderbook.

0.05¢
YES
99.95¢
NO
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection37Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets32Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution85Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 52%💡 3 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:13 trades$9.9K trackedsource coverage 7%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 44 min agoofficial metadata 1 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:NO · $1.6K net·3 wallets·$5.0K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:SELLNO$2.0K@ 100¢·Gustav4-1

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

YES pressure: $3.7K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
+$3.7K
6h
−$804
tracked
$9.9K

3 verified profitable wallets: NO · $1.6K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 52% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Observed tape is 44 minutes old.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from YES or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-11-14 17:00 UTC
Event constraint
Mutually exclusive
Resolution source: https://x.com/elonmusk
Read full resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from November 12 12:00 PM ET to November 14, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
PredictionYogi3 linked markets · $6.4K gross
AndreaPirlo4 linked markets · $6.1K gross
0x9b257ead1a6240d4ab5c2ae02533 linked markets · $5.8K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Executable orderbook · both outcomes
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Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor YES; negative values favor NO. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hYES · $3.7K
6hNO · $804
24hYES · $870

YES price VWAP

Volume-weighted YES price. NO fills are converted to the complementary YES probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current0.05¢
VWAP 24h16.57¢▼ below by 16.5pp
VWAP 7d16.71¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$1.7K
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$64
20¢
$0
15¢
$1.1K
10¢
$0
5¢
$1.6K
0¢
← now
$6.6K

VPOC = 0¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
No whale activity