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BNP Paribas Nordic Open: Alex Michelsen vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo

Sports→TennisSettlement: Alex MichelsenLiquidity: $143.4KOfficial 24h Vol: $259.7KEvent: BNP Paribas Nordic Open: Alex Michelsen vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo
100.0¢
Alex Michelsen payout
0.0¢
Juan Manuel Cerundolo payout
Historical analytics · no executable quote
24h sample:106 trades$97.9K tracked1% 🐋source coverage 38%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 519 min agoofficial metadata 438 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Juan Manuel Cerundolo · $1.7K net·4 wallets·$9.5K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYAlex Michelsen$14.8K@ 78¢·stuttig

Historical decision record

Market resolved · outcome Alex Michelsen. Flow, alerts and prices below are retained evidence, not an executable setup.

RESOLVED

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
RESOLVED
Trading
Orders paused
Deadline
2026-11-17 12:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Alex Michelsen and Juan Manuel Cerundolo in the BNP Paribas Nordic Open, originally scheduled for November 10, 2026 at 7:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Alex Michelsen' if Alex Michelsen advances against Juan Manuel Cerundolo. This market will resolve to 'Juan Manuel Cerundolo' if Juan Manuel Cerundolo advances against Alex Michelsen. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by November 24, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

ANTI CHASEBUY Alex Michelsen10h ago
Outcome checks pending
LARGE FLOWBUY Alex Michelsen@ 83.0¢10h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h CONFIRMED +15.5pp6h UNAVAILABLE
Latest book event: Juan Manuel Cerundolo DOWN 3.0pp · near-book depth $14.4K → $5.0K · 53s

Outcome Price History

Execution status
Market resolved · the orderbook is not executable.

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolved

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Alex Michelsen; negative values favor Juan Manuel Cerundolo. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hAlex Michelsen · $0
6hAlex Michelsen · $22.9K
24hAlex Michelsen · $27.6K

Alex Michelsen price VWAP

Volume-weighted Alex Michelsen price. Juan Manuel Cerundolo fills are converted to the complementary Alex Michelsen probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current100.0¢
VWAP 24h86.38¢▲ above by 13.6pp
VWAP 7d86.38¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Alex Michelsen price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$25.2K
90¢
$12.8K
85¢
$2.9K
80¢
$14.0K
75¢
$43.0K
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 75¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Historical observed tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYAlex Michelsen$14.8K@ 78.0¢
stuttig0xe4d7…ce04
🐋—about 10 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

stuttigAlex Michelsen$25.2K
BUY VWAP 78.10¢·5 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.