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Spread: Penn State Nittany Lions (-20.5)

Sports→BasketballCloses: about 1 hourLiquidity: $0Official 24h Vol: $133Event: Mercyhurst Lakers vs. Penn State Nittany Lions

Polymarket indicative prices · 13 min ago · Buy/sell quotes are shown in the orderbook.

23.0¢
Penn State Nittany Lions
77.0¢
Mercyhurst Lakers
—
Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets0Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution0Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 50%
24h sample:1 trades$1 trackedsource coverage 1%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 506 min agoofficial metadata 13 min ago

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
$0
6h
$0
tracked
$1

No verified profitable-wallet confirmation in the observed sample.

Can it be executed?
—displayed spread

A two-sided quote is unavailable; check each available bid/ask below.

Data confidence 50% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Two-sided executable spread is unavailable.
  • •Only 1 tracked trades / 1 wallets in the 24h sample.
  • •Tracked source coverage is only 1%.
  • •Executable quote freshness is unavailable.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-11-12 23:30 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.ncaa.com/
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Penn State Nittany Lions" if the Penn State Nittany Lions win the game by 21 or more points.

•Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Mercyhurst Lakers".

Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming CBB game between Mercyhurst Lakers and Penn State Nittany Lions, originally scheduled for Thursday, November 12, 2026 at 6:30 PM ET (as of creation of the first market related to the event): This market will resolve to "Penn State Nittany Lions" if the Penn State Nittany Lions win the game by 21 or more points. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Mercyhurst Lakers". The result will be determined based on the final score including any overtime periods. If this market's outcome was definitively determined under its rules by the listed resolution sources before abandonment, that outcome will stand. Otherwise, the following no-result provisions apply. If the game is canceled, does not start by Saturday, November 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or is abandoned with no official result by that time, this market will resolve 50-50.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Penn State Nittany Lions; negative values favor Mercyhurst Lakers. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hPenn State Nittany Lions · $0
6hPenn State Nittany Lions · $0
24hMercyhurst Lakers · $1

Penn State Nittany Lions price VWAP

Volume-weighted Penn State Nittany Lions price. Mercyhurst Lakers fills are converted to the complementary Penn State Nittany Lions probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current23.0¢
VWAP 24h51.0¢▼ below by 28.0pp
VWAP 7d51.0¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Penn State Nittany Lions price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$1
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
← now
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 50¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
No whale activity

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

No observed $10K+ whale buys

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.