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Set Handicap: Alejandro Tabilo (-1.5) vs Thiago Agustin Tirante (+1.5)

● quote 452 min ago
Sports→TennisCloses: 7 daysLiquidity: $0Official 24h Vol: $325Event: BNP Paribas Nordic Open: Alejandro Tabilo vs Thiago Agustin Tirante

Indicative prices · 452 min ago · Buy/sell quotes are shown in the orderbook.

33.5¢
Alejandro Tabilo
66.5¢
Thiago Agustin Tirante
3.0¢
Spread
anomaly40Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection100Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets0Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution49Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 58%
24h sample:1 trades$106 trackedsource coverage 32%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 41 min agoofficial metadata 1 min ago

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
−$106
6h
−$106
tracked
$106

No verified profitable-wallet confirmation in the observed sample.

Can it be executed?
3.0¢displayed spread

Workable spread; verify depth and the $10K slippage estimate below.

Data confidence 58% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Only 1 tracked trades / 1 wallets in the 24h sample.
  • •Executable quote is 452 minutes old.
  • •Observed tape is 41 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-11-20 13:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Alejandro Tabilo" if Alejandro Tabilo wins by 2 or more sets than Thiago Agustin Tirante, based on the final completed score. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Thiago Agustin Tirante."

•If the match begins but is not completed due to retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve 50-50, unless the outcome of this market has already been unconditionally determined by the completed portion of play under the match format published by the tournament organizer for that round. For example, if the deciding set has begun when the match ends, Alejandro Tabilo can no longer win by 2 or more sets, and this market will resolve to "Thiago Agustin Tirante."

Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Alejandro Tabilo and Thiago Agustin Tirante in the BNP Paribas Nordic Open, originally scheduled for November 13, 2026 at 8:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "Alejandro Tabilo" if Alejandro Tabilo wins by 2 or more sets than Thiago Agustin Tirante, based on the final completed score. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Thiago Agustin Tirante." If the match begins but is not completed due to retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve 50-50, unless the outcome of this market has already been unconditionally determined by the completed portion of play under the match format published by the tournament organizer for that round. For example, if the deciding set has begun when the match ends, Alejandro Tabilo can no longer win by 2 or more sets, and this market will resolve to "Thiago Agustin Tirante." If the match is canceled before play begins, or a result has not been determined by November 27, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve 50-50. Resolution will be based on official ATP results.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.discovery

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Alejandro Tabilo; negative values favor Thiago Agustin Tirante. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hThiago Agustin Tirante · $106
6hThiago Agustin Tirante · $106
24hThiago Agustin Tirante · $106

Alejandro Tabilo price VWAP

Volume-weighted Alejandro Tabilo price. Thiago Agustin Tirante fills are converted to the complementary Alejandro Tabilo probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current33.5¢
VWAP 24h34.0¢▼ below by 0.5pp
VWAP 7d34.0¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Alejandro Tabilo price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
← now
$106
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 30¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
No whale activity

Related Markets · same event first, then category

BNP Paribas Nordic Open: Alejandro Tabilo vs Thiago Agustin Tirante
64.5¢$143.3Kpriority61Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Tabilo vs. Tirante: Match O/U 23.5
74.0¢$10.7Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Tabilo vs. Tirante: Match O/U 21.5
60.5¢$2.7Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Game Spread: Alejandro Tabilo (-1.5) vs Thiago Agustin Tirante (+1.5)
56.5¢$2.1Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Set 1 Winner: Alejandro Tabilo vs Thiago Agustin Tirante
62.5¢$581priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Tabilo vs. Tirante: Match O/U 22.5
50.0¢$314priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Alejandro Tabilo vs. Thiago Agustin Tirante: Total Sets O/U 2.5
45.5¢$56priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Set 2 Winner: Alejandro Tabilo vs Thiago Agustin Tirante
58.5¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

No observed $10K+ whale buys

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.