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Spread: Grizzlies (-5.5)

● quote 294 min ago
Sports→BasketballCloses: about 1 hourLiquidity: $0Official 24h Vol: $8.4KEvent: Grizzlies vs. Pelicans

Indicative prices · 294 min ago · Buy/sell quotes are shown in the orderbook.

42.5¢
Grizzlies
57.5¢
Pelicans
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets33Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution63Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 57%💡 1 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:4 trades$2.3K trackedsource coverage 27%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 647 min agoofficial metadata 8 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYGrizzlies$2.1K@ 40¢·testCore

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
$0
6h
$0
tracked
$2.3K

1 verified profitable wallet: Pelicans · $197 net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 57% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Executable quote is 294 minutes old.
  • •Observed tape is 647 minutes old.
  • •Less than 1h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-11-14 01:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.nba.com/
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Grizzlies" if the Grizzlies win the game by 6 or more points.

•Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Pelicans". If the game ends in a tie, this market will resolve to "Pelicans".

Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming NBA game between Grizzlies and Pelicans, originally scheduled for Friday, November 13, 2026 at 8:00 PM ET (as of creation of the first market related to the event): This market will resolve to "Grizzlies" if the Grizzlies win the game by 6 or more points. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Pelicans". If the game ends in a tie, this market will resolve to "Pelicans". If this market's outcome was definitively determined under its rules by the listed resolution sources before abandonment, that outcome will stand. Otherwise, the following no-result provisions apply. If the game is canceled, does not start by Sunday, November 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or is abandoned with no official result by that time, this market will resolve 50-50.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
Lakersfan1112 linked markets · $101.2K gross
quavoo5 linked markets · $89.8K gross
keeptheblueflagflyinghigh2 linked markets · $25.6K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Grizzlies; negative values favor Pelicans. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hGrizzlies · $0
6hGrizzlies · $0
24hGrizzlies · $1.9K

Grizzlies price VWAP

Volume-weighted Grizzlies price. Pelicans fills are converted to the complementary Grizzlies probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current42.5¢
VWAP 24h40.0¢▲ above by 2.5pp
VWAP 7d40.0¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Grizzlies price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
← now
$2.2K
35¢
$3
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 40¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
No whale activity

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Grizzlies vs. Pelicans
60.5¢$398.5Kpriority65Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Spread: Grizzlies (-3.5)
50.5¢$122.5Kpriority54Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Grizzlies vs. Pelicans: O/U 235.5
49.5¢$69.5Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Spread: Grizzlies (-2.5)
53.5¢$51.8Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Spread: Grizzlies (-4.5)
46.5¢$27.0Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Grizzlies vs. Pelicans: O/U 237.5
43.5¢$12.8Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Grizzlies vs. Pelicans: O/U 233.5
54.5¢$9.4Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Spread: Grizzlies (-1.5)
57.5¢$8.8Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

No observed $10K+ whale buys

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.