Will Ethereum dip to $800 by December 31, 2026?

● quote 2 min ago

Crypto→Closes: 4 monthsLiquidity: $83.7KOfficial 24h Vol: $20.0KEvent: What price will Ethereum hit in 2026?

6.5¢

YES

93.5¢

1.0¢

Spread

anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets33Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution90Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 75%💡 1 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot

24h sample:7 trades$37.6K trackedsource coverage 100%BUY/SELL known 100%

tape 69 min agoofficial metadata 13 min ago

Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYNO$9.4K@ 94¢·0xf705…3ca7

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN

What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

−$25.4K

tracked

$37.6K

1 verified profitable wallet: −$12.3K YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?

1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 75% · priority 0

Since latest large flow: +0.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence

•Observed tape is 69 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution

climax

Trading

Orders accepted

Deadline

2027-01-01 05:00 UTC

Event constraint

Not verified

Resolution source: Not supplied by the market

Read full resolution rules

This market will immediately resolve to “Yes” if any Binance 1-minute candle for Ethereum (ETH/USDT) between November 24, 2025, 14:00 and December 31, 2026, 23:59 in the ET timezone has a final “Low” price equal to or lower than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the ETH/USDT “Low” prices available at: https://www.binance.com/en/trade/ETH_USDT with the chart settings on “1m” (one-minute candles) selected on the top bar. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance ETH/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow

0x731a…033f2 linked markets · $108.5K gross

0xf705…3ca74 linked markets · $50.8K gross

0x9abc…decf2 linked markets · $44.9K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY NO@ 94.0¢2h ago

15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes

Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleMarket stage. discovery = low volume early stage. climax = high volume + price near resolution (>85% or <15%). resolving = deadline within 24h. active = normal trading.climax

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.

1h+$0

6h−$25.4K

24h−$37.6K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.

Current6.5¢

VWAP 24h6.0¢▲ above by 0.5pp

VWAP 7d6.1¢

Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢

90¢

85¢

80¢

75¢

70¢

65¢

60¢

55¢