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Will the FAA's nationwide ground stop be lifted by November 14, 12:00 AM ET?

● quote just now
Closes: about 5 hoursLiquidity: $5.9KOfficial 24h Vol: $82.8KEvent: Nationwide ground stop lifted by...?

Indicative prices · just now · Buy/sell quotes are shown in the orderbook.

52.0¢
YES
48.0¢
NO
4.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection16Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets65Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution49Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority54Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 79%💡 2 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:12 trades$11.8K trackedsource coverage 14%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 4 min agoofficial metadata 26s ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:NO · $1.6K net·2 wallets·$1.6K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:SELLYES$2.0K@ 62¢·fkcvffcjt

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WATCH — NO CONFIRMED SETUP
What the tape says

YES pressure: $1.9K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
+$1.9K
6h
−$2.1K
tracked
$11.8K

2 verified profitable wallets: NO · $1.6K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
4.0¢displayed spread

Expensive before size: wait for tighter quotes or reduce size.

Data confidence 79% · priority 54

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Spread is 4.0¢ before size-dependent slippage.
  • •Less than 5h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from YES or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-11-14 04:59 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: Not supplied by the market
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to “Yes” if the FAA, the U.S. Department of Transportation, or their authorized representatives officially announce that this nationwide ground stop is no longer in effect between market creation and the listed date and time (inclusive of the listed minute). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Read full resolution rules

The FAA issued a nationwide ground stop for flights departing U.S. airports on November 13, 2026 (see: https://www.cnn.com/2026/11/13/us/faa-nationwide-ground-stop). This market will resolve to “Yes” if the FAA, the U.S. Department of Transportation, or their authorized representatives officially announce that this nationwide ground stop is no longer in effect between market creation and the listed date and time (inclusive of the listed minute). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A qualifying announcement must communicate that the nationwide (all-airports) ground stop is cancelled or otherwise no longer in effect, including where it is replaced by narrower ground stops or other traffic management initiatives at individual airports or regions. Announcements that the ground stop is lifted for, or does not affect, specific airports, regions, or flights while the nationwide ground stop remains in effect will not count. An announcement that the ground stop will end at a future time will not qualify until its effective time. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the FAA & the Department of Transportation; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
Bertapotamous4 linked markets · $19.6K gross
fkcvffcjt3 linked markets · $15.8K gross
dogerfad3 linked markets · $13.8K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor YES; negative values favor NO. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hYES · $1.9K
6hNO · $2.1K
24hNO · $2.1K

YES price VWAP

Volume-weighted YES price. NO fills are converted to the complementary YES probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current52.0¢
VWAP 24h63.64¢▼ below by 11.6pp
VWAP 7d63.64¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$1.5K
65¢
$5.2K
60¢
$2.0K
55¢
$1.1K
50¢
← now
$2.0K
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 65¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
No whale activity

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

No observed $10K+ whale buys

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.