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Sydney: Hayden Jones vs Naoki Nakagawa

Sports→TennisCloses: 7 daysLiquidity: $0Official 24h Vol: $17.7KEvent: Sydney: Hayden Jones vs Naoki Nakagawa

Polymarket indicative prices · 7 min ago · Buy/sell quotes are shown in the orderbook.

48.5¢
Hayden Jones
51.5¢
Naoki Nakagawa
—
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection11Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets33Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution0Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 51%💡 3 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:27 trades$1.0K trackedsource coverage 6%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 23 min agoofficial metadata 7 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Naoki Nakagawa · $207 net·3 wallets·$249 gross

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
+$113
6h
−$98
tracked
$1.0K

3 verified profitable wallets: Naoki Nakagawa · $207 net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
—displayed spread

A two-sided quote is unavailable; check each available bid/ask below.

Data confidence 51% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Two-sided executable spread is unavailable.
  • •Executable quote freshness is unavailable.
  • •Observed tape is 23 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-11-22 01:30 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Hayden Jones and Naoki Nakagawa in the Sydney, Australia, Qualifying, originally scheduled for November 14, 2026 at 8:30PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Hayden Jones' if Hayden Jones advances against Naoki Nakagawa. This market will resolve to 'Naoki Nakagawa' if Naoki Nakagawa advances against Hayden Jones. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by November 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Executable orderbook · both outcomes
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Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.discovery

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Hayden Jones; negative values favor Naoki Nakagawa. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hHayden Jones · $113
6hNaoki Nakagawa · $98
24hNaoki Nakagawa · $98

Hayden Jones price VWAP

Volume-weighted Hayden Jones price. Naoki Nakagawa fills are converted to the complementary Hayden Jones probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current48.5¢
VWAP 24h33.93¢▲ above by 14.6pp
VWAP 7d33.93¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Hayden Jones price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$45
45¢
← now
$38
40¢
$244
35¢
$399
30¢
$0
25¢
$10
20¢
$301
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 35¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
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🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
No whale activity

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Jones vs. Nakagawa: Match O/U 22.5
50.0¢$5priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Jones vs. Nakagawa: Match O/U 21.5
99.55¢$5priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Set Handicap: Hayden Jones (-1.5) vs Naoki Nakagawa (+1.5)
0.4¢$3priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Hayden Jones vs. Naoki Nakagawa: Total Sets O/U 2.5
50.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Jones vs. Nakagawa: Match O/U 23.5
50.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Set Handicap: Naoki Nakagawa (-1.5) vs Hayden Jones (+1.5)
50.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Set 2 Winner: Hayden Jones vs Naoki Nakagawa
50.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Set 1 Winner: Hayden Jones vs Naoki Nakagawa
0.05¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

No observed $10K+ whale buys

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.