Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?

Sports→Formula 1Closes: about 1 monthLiquidity: $84.2KOfficial 24h Vol: $225.0KEvent: F1 Drivers' Champion

Indicative prices · just now · Buy/sell quotes are shown in the orderbook.

99.85¢

YES

0.15¢

Historical analytics · no executable quote

24h sample:81 trades$221.2K tracked5% 🐋source coverage 98%BUY/SELL known 100%

tape 13 min agoofficial metadata 2 min ago

Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:YES · $2.0K net·5 wallets·$5.2K gross

Largest observed trade · 30d:SELLYES$70.6K@ 100¢·tsekinming01

Decision read paused

Market status is DISPUTED. No executable setup is shown until trading is open again.

DISPUTED

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution

DISPUTED

Trading

Orders paused

Deadline

2026-12-06 00:00 UTC

Event constraint

Mutually exclusive

Resolution source: Not supplied by the market

Outcome meaning

•If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed driver to win the 2026 F1 Drivers Championship based on the rules of F1 (e.g., they are mathematically eliminated from contention), the corresponding market will resolve to “No”.

•If the F1 season is permanently canceled or has not been completed by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

Read full resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the listed driver that finishes 1st in the driver standings for the 2026 F1 season. This market will resolve as soon as the official results of the final scheduled race of the 2026 F1 season are known. If multiple drivers tie for first place in the drivers standings, this market will resolve according to the tiebreak procedure used by F1 to determine the 2026 F1 Drivers’ champion. If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed driver to win the 2026 F1 Drivers Championship based on the rules of F1 (e.g., they are mathematically eliminated from contention), the corresponding market will resolve to “No”. If the F1 season is permanently canceled or has not been completed by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Formula 1.

Recent definition/status changes

RESOLUTION STATUS CHANGED · 3h ago

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow

0x4548…43b22 linked markets · $11 gross

0x3607…704d2 linked markets · $9 gross

0x0b9f…d2992 linked markets · $2 gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

MARKET STATE3h ago

Outcome checks pending

MARKET STATE3h ago

Outcome checks pending

POSITION CHANGESELL YES@ 99.5¢5d ago

15m STALLED -0.1pp1h STALLED +0.0pp6h STALLED -0.2pp24h STALLED -0.3pp

LARGE FLOWBUY YES@ 91.2¢50d ago

15m STALLED -0.8pp1h STALLED -0.7pp6h STALLED -0.5pp24h STALLED -0.3pp

Outcome Price History

Execution status

Market disputed · the orderbook is not executable.

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.disputed

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor YES; negative values favor NO. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.

1hNO · $138

6hNO · $131.3K

24hNO · $103.2K

YES price VWAP

Volume-weighted YES price. NO fills are converted to the complementary YES probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.

Current99.85¢

VWAP 24h99.89¢▼ below by 0.0pp

VWAP 7d99.68¢

Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢

← now

$912.6K

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