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Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?

● quote 12s ago
Sports→Closes: 3 monthsLiquidity: $161.5KOfficial 24h Vol: $45.6KEvent: F1 Drivers' Champion
93.0¢
YES
7.0¢
NO
0.7¢
Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets0Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution94Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 51%💡 1 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:9 trades$2.7K trackedsource coverage 6%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 159 min agoofficial metadata 9 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYYES$18.0K@ 90¢·4751346

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
$0
6h
−$9
tracked
$2.7K

1 verified profitable wallet: NO · $151 net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.7¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 51% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 159 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-12-06 00:00 UTC
Event constraint
Mutually exclusive
Resolution source: Not supplied by the market
Outcome meaning

•If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed driver to win the 2026 F1 Drivers Championship based on the rules of F1 (e.g., they are mathematically eliminated from contention), the corresponding market will resolve to “No”.

•If the F1 season is permanently canceled or has not been completed by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

Read full resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the listed driver that finishes 1st in the driver standings for the 2026 F1 season. This market will resolve as soon as the official results of the final scheduled race of the 2026 F1 season are known. If multiple drivers tie for first place in the drivers standings, this market will resolve according to the tiebreak procedure used by F1 to determine the 2026 F1 Drivers’ champion. If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed driver to win the 2026 F1 Drivers Championship based on the rules of F1 (e.g., they are mathematically eliminated from contention), the corresponding market will resolve to “No”. If the F1 season is permanently canceled or has not been completed by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Formula 1.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
neutralwave232 linked markets · $1.8K gross
0x814d…b8423 linked markets · $405 gross
0xa0f2…18482 linked markets · $233 gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY YES@ 91.2¢4d ago
15m STALLED -0.8pp1h STALLED -0.7pp6h STALLED -0.5pp24h STALLED -0.3pp

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor YES; negative values favor NO. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hYES · $0
6hNO · $9
24hNO · $2.7K

YES price VWAP

Volume-weighted YES price. NO fills are converted to the complementary YES probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current93.0¢
VWAP 24h92.5¢▲ above by 0.5pp
VWAP 7d89.5¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
← now
$40.1K
85¢
$53.3K
80¢
$20.6K
75¢
$2.8K
70¢
$46.8K
65¢
$4.6K
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 85¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYYES$18.0K@ 90.0¢
47513460x6dd6…f5f4
🐋—4 days ago
BUYYES$13.1K@ 86.5¢
cityhuang0x36e8…bd3f
🐋—6 days ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

4751346Yes$18.0K
BUY VWAP 90.0¢·1 fill
cityhuangYes$13.7K
BUY VWAP 86.5¢·2 fills
0x127e…3dd8Yes$12.2K
BUY VWAP 93.2¢·2 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.