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Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?

Politics→Settlement: NOLiquidity: $567.0KOfficial 24h Vol: $1.6MEvent: Which party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
0.0¢
YES payout
100.0¢
NO payout
Historical analytics · no executable quote
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYNO$51.3K@ 83¢·dromedaryy

Historical decision record

Market resolved · outcome NO. Flow, alerts and prices below are retained evidence, not an executable setup.

RESOLVED

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
RESOLVED
Trading
Orders paused
Deadline
2026-09-20 23:59 UTC
Event constraint
Mutually exclusive
Resolution source: Not supplied by the market
Outcome meaning

•If the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

Read full resolution rules

Parliamentary elections are to be scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that gains the greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election, compared to before the election. If the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats gained, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats gained by the named party in the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation. This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LIQUIDITY ABSORPTIONBUY NO@ 94.7¢11d ago
15m STALLED +1.3pp1h CONFIRMED +3.0pp6h CONFIRMED +3.5pp24h UNAVAILABLE
LIQUIDITY ABSORPTIONBUY NO@ 83.2¢13d ago
15m INVALIDATED -7.7pp1h INVALIDATED -6.1pp6h INVALIDATED -4.8pp24h STALLED -2.2pp
LARGE FLOWBUY NO@ 83.4¢13d ago
15m STALLED -2.1pp1h INVALIDATED -7.8pp6h INVALIDATED -7.6pp24h STALLED -2.1pp
LARGE FLOWBUY YES@ 16.7¢13d ago
15m STALLED +0.8pp1h STALLED +1.0pp6h CONFIRMED +7.6pp24h STALLED +2.3pp

Outcome Price History

Execution status
Market resolved · the orderbook is not executable.

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolved

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor YES; negative values favor NO. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hYES · $11
6hNO · $62.7K
24hNO · $201.4K

YES price VWAP

Volume-weighted YES price. NO fills are converted to the complementary YES probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current0.0¢
VWAP 24h4.9¢▼ below by 4.9pp
VWAP 7d13.0¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$56.0K
20¢
$158.0K
15¢
$230.2K
10¢
$23.8K
5¢
$95.8K
0¢
← now
$160.5K

VPOC = 15¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Historical observed tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYNO$49.9K@ 99.8¢
tsybka0xd5cc…dea4
🐋—10 days ago
BUYNO$28.6K@ 92.9¢
classified0x12d6…f2a8
🐋—11 days ago
BUYNO$27.9K@ 92.9¢
scout0x2d99…4ca3
🐋—11 days ago
BUYNO$13.9K@ 92.9¢
classified0x12d6…f2a8
🐋—11 days ago
BUYYES$13.6K@ 20.4¢
harpoontrading0x202d…369c
🐋—12 days ago
BUYNO$51.3K@ 83.3¢
dromedaryy0x6575…b198
🐋—13 days ago
BUYNO$25.0K@ 83.3¢
timetowander0x58b3…653c
🐋—13 days ago
BUYYES$10.4K@ 19.7¢0x202b…7ed7🐋—13 days ago
BUYYES$11.1K@ 29.5¢
imnotivan0x73f6…3fa9
🐋—16 days ago
BUYYES$10.0K@ 51.4¢
lkitckdi90xb3e8…3735
🐋—about 1 month ago
BUYYES$10.0K@ 45.9¢
lkitckdi90xb3e8…3735
🐋—about 1 month ago
BUYYES$10.0K@ 46.4¢
lkitckdi90xb3e8…3735
🐋—about 1 month ago
BUYNO$13.6K@ 85.7¢
kindar0x369f…873e
🐋—about 2 months ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

No observed $10K+ whale buys

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.