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Will Anthropic have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?

● quote 13s ago
Finance→Tech→Science→CorporateCloses: about 2 monthsLiquidity: $31.7KOfficial 24h Vol: $11.1KEvent: Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?

Indicative prices · 13s ago · Buy/sell quotes are shown in the orderbook.

6.25¢
YES
93.75¢
NO
0.5¢
Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets33Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution83Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 51%💡 3 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:4 trades$343 trackedsource coverage 3%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 122 min agoofficial metadata 8 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:NO · $778 net·3 wallets·$778 gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYNO$26.2K@ 90¢·schizohedgehog

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
$0
6h
−$3
tracked
$343

3 verified profitable wallets: NO · $778 net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.5¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 51% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 122 minutes old.
  • •Rules, deadline or market status changed recently; re-read the current definition.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2027-01-02 04:59 UTC
Event constraint
Mutually exclusive
Resolution source: https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h10/
Outcome meaning

•A listed company may resolve to "No" as soon as it becomes unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.

Read full resolution rules

This market will resolve to the company that achieves the highest market capitalization in U.S. dollars based on the official closing price on its first trading day in 2026. This market will resolve to a company that completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Market capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day. If two or more companies have exactly equal highest closing market capitalizations, this market will resolve to the company whose listed name comes first alphabetically. Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used. In case the respective company's primary exchange’s official listing page does not report in U.S. dollars, it will be converted to U.S. dollars using the U.S. Federal Reserve Board’s H.10 foreign exchange reference rate for the relevant currency pair on the company’s first trading day (https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h10/). If no such rate is available for the relevant trading day, the most recent previously published rate will be used. If the relevant currency is not listed, another credible exchange rate source will be used. A listed company may resolve to "No" as soon as it becomes unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded. In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on the respective companies’ first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.

Recent definition/status changes
DEADLINE CHANGED · 44d ago
Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
schizohedgehog2 linked markets · $48.1K gross
rip2 linked markets · $6.2K gross
0x122c…fbed2 linked markets · $6.1K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY NO@ 91.3¢5d ago
15m STALLED -1.1pp1h STALLED -1.2pp6h STALLED -1.0pp24h STALLED -0.5pp
LARGE FLOWBUY YES@ 47.0¢43d ago
15m STALLED -0.1pp1h STALLED -0.7pp6h STALLED +0.1pp24h CONFIRMED +9.0pp
EVENT SHIFTBUY YES@ 50.4¢44d ago
Outcome checks pending
EVENT SHIFTBUY YES@ 48.95¢46d ago
Outcome checks pending

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.climax

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor YES; negative values favor NO. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hYES · $0
6hNO · $3
24hNO · $343

YES price VWAP

Volume-weighted YES price. NO fills are converted to the complementary YES probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current6.25¢
VWAP 24h6.2¢▲ above by 0.1pp
VWAP 7d9.03¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$6.9K
45¢
$23.1K
40¢
$2.1K
35¢
$4.7K
30¢
$149
25¢
$2.5K
20¢
$46
15¢
$0
10¢
$48.4K
5¢
← now
$7.5K
0¢
$1.9K

VPOC = 10¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…
Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYNO$26.2K@ 89.91¢
schizohedgehog0x4755…4158
🐋—6 days ago
BUYNO$13.6K@ 89.92¢
schizohedgehog0x4755…4158
🐋—7 days ago
BUYYES$48.0K@ 48.0¢
occasionalAwareness0x8a4c…532b
🐋—about 1 month ago
SELLYES$57.5K@ 57.5¢0xffbb…36e9🐋—2 months ago
SELLYES$11.3K@ 57.51¢
sumer0x7d7d…e3e5
🐋—3 months ago
BUYNO$17.6K@ 42.39¢
BMM-10xdf1c…2ebb
🐋—3 months ago
SELLYES$21.6K@ 57.5¢0x9032…8717🐋—3 months ago
BUYNO$10.0K@ 73.43¢
redvinny0x56c9…0d9e
🐋—3 months ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

schizohedgehogNo$26.2K
BUY VWAP 89.91¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.