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Will LeBron James play for the Miami Heat in 2026-27?

● quote 30138 min ago
Sports→Closes: 3 monthsLiquidity: $254.3KOfficial 24h Vol: $97.2KEvent: NBA: LeBron James Next Team
0.1¢
YES
99.9¢
NO
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets0Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution30Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 62%
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYNO$54.7K@ 100¢·0x5452…d448

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — MARKET STATUS RISK
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
$0
6h
+$20.2K
tracked
$46.2K

No verified profitable-wallet confirmation in the observed sample.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 62% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Only 0 tracked trades / 30 wallets in the 24h sample.
  • •Executable quote is 30138 minutes old.
  • •Observed tape is 30296 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
resolved
Trading
Orders paused
Deadline
2026-10-31 03:59 UTC
Event constraint
Mutually exclusive
Resolution source: Not supplied by the market
Read full resolution rules

This market will resolve to the next team LeBron James officially joins by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. If LeBron James does not officially join a new team by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Los Angeles Lakers”. If LeBron James joins a team that is not listed, this market will resolve to “Other”. If LeBron James retires or is not under contract with any professional team by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. An official acquisition announcement prior to the market’s close date will immediately resolve this market to the corresponding option. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official announcements from the Los Angeles Lakers and/or the acquiring team. A consensus of credible media reporting may also be used to resolve the market.

Recent definition/status changes
RESOLUTION STATUS CHANGED · 21d ago
TRADING STATUS CHANGED · 21d ago

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

FRESH CAPITALBUY NO@ 99.9¢23d ago
15m UNAVAILABLE1h UNAVAILABLE6h STALLED -0.1pp24h UNAVAILABLE
MARKET SWEEPBUY NO@ 98.1¢23d ago
15m UNAVAILABLE1h UNAVAILABLE6h STALLED +1.7pp24h UNAVAILABLE
EVENT SHIFTBUY YES@ 47.3¢23d ago
Outcome checks pending
EVENT SHIFTBUY YES@ 46.2¢24d ago
Outcome checks pending
Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h+$0
6h+$20.2K
24h+$46.2K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current0.1¢
VWAP 24h0.1¢▲ above by 0.0pp
VWAP 7d7.4¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$28.0K
40¢
$25.1K
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
← now
$299.9K

VPOC = 0¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…
Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
SELLNO$20.0K@ 99.9¢
cigarettes0xd218…b5c9
🐋—21 days ago
SELLNO$17.6K@ 99.9¢0x9e3e…f882🐋—22 days ago
BUYNO$54.7K@ 99.9¢0x5452…d448🐋—23 days ago
SELLNO$12.3K@ 99.9¢0x7b8c…1556🐋—23 days ago
BUYNO$38.1K@ 98.1¢
iDARKenjoyer0xf68a…5b1b
🐋—23 days ago
BUYNO$49.0K@ 98.1¢0x4e3d…8554🐋—23 days ago
BUYYES$16.4K@ 42.5¢
Winnnnnnning0x533c…2658
🐋—24 days ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

No observed $10K+ whale buys

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.