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Will Aisha Wahab win the CA-14 special election?

Politics→Settlement: YESLiquidity: $36.2KOfficial 24h Vol: $12.3KEvent: CA-14 Special Election Winner?
100.0¢
YES payout
0.0¢
NO payout
Historical analytics · no executable quote
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYYES$21.6K@ 100¢·Seutervoinen

Historical decision record

Market resolved · outcome YES. Flow, alerts and prices below are retained evidence, not an executable setup.

RESOLVED

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
RESOLVED
Trading
Orders paused
Deadline
2026-08-18 00:00 UTC
Event constraint
Mutually exclusive
Resolution source: Not supplied by the market
Outcome meaning

•If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

Read full resolution rules

A special election is scheduled for August 18, 2026 to fill the seat of California’s 14th Congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives. This market will resolve according to the winner of this election. This market includes any potential runoff election or second round. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including: https://www.sos.ca.gov/.

Recent definition/status changes
TRADING STATUS CHANGED · 3d ago

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.

Outcome Price History

Execution status
Market resolved · the orderbook is not executable.

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolved

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor YES; negative values favor NO. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hYES · $0
6hYES · $35.2K
24hYES · $63.6K

YES price VWAP

Volume-weighted YES price. NO fills are converted to the complementary YES probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current100.0¢
VWAP 24h99.7¢▲ above by 0.3pp
VWAP 7d98.0¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$61.8K
90¢
$4.8K
85¢
$5.1K
80¢
$1.6K
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 95¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Historical observed tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYYES$17.7K@ 99.9¢
Cloverince0xea1c…4daf
🐋—3 days ago
BUYYES$21.6K@ 99.9¢
Seutervoinen0xfaf6…cc47
🐋—3 days ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

CloverinceYes$29.1K
BUY VWAP 99.9¢·3 fills
SeutervoinenYes$26.6K
BUY VWAP 99.9¢·2 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.