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Will GameStop acquire eBay?

● quote just now
Finance→CorporateCloses: 3 monthsLiquidity: $217.9KOfficial 24h Vol: $61.0KEvent: Will GameStop acquire eBay?
5.5¢
YES
94.5¢
NO
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets0Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 50%💡 3 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:1 trades$7 trackedsource coverage 0%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 1333 min agoofficial metadata 2266 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:NO · $34.6K net·3 wallets(2🐋)·$47.5K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:SELLNO$14.6K@ 92¢·NonceChaser

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
$0
6h
$0
tracked
$7

3 verified profitable wallets: NO · $34.6K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 50% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Only 1 tracked trades / 1 wallets in the 24h sample.
  • •Tracked source coverage is only 0%.
  • •Observed tape is 1333 minutes old.
  • •Official market metadata is 2266 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2027-01-01 04:59 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: Not supplied by the market
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is officially announced that eBay will be, has been, or is being acquired by or merged with GameStop, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Read full resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is officially announced that eBay will be, has been, or is being acquired by or merged with GameStop, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Mergers or acquisitions involving eBay or its parent company, eBay Inc., and GameStop or its parent company (if applicable), will qualify. An announcement by eBay or GameStop within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether or when the announced acquisition/merger actually occurs. Announcements of partial sales may count, as long as GameStop acquires a controlling interest in eBay. A “controlling interest” refers to a change in ownership sufficient to control the company’s strategic decisions (typically more than 50% of equity, or equivalent control via voting and governance rights). Transactions or investments that do not result in a transfer of controlling interest will not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from eBay and GameStop; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Recent definition/status changes
DEADLINE CHANGED · 18d ago

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY NO@ 94.0¢7d ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp6h STALLED -1.0pp24h STALLED +0.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY NO@ 90.0¢58d ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp6h STALLED +0.0pp24h STALLED +1.0pp
POSITION CHANGEBUY NO@ 90.0¢58d ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp6h STALLED +0.0pp24h STALLED +1.0pp
CONFIRMED BUILDBUY NO@ 90.0¢58d ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp6h STALLED +0.0pp24h STALLED +1.0pp

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor YES; negative values favor NO. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hYES · $0
6hYES · $0
24hNO · $7

YES price VWAP

Volume-weighted YES price. NO fills are converted to the complementary YES probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current5.5¢
VWAP 24h5.0¢▲ above by 0.5pp
VWAP 7d5.9¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

Loading…

YES price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
← now
$109.9K
0¢
$0

VPOC = 5¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYNO$11.9K@ 94.0¢
tourists0xc6dd…4b9f
🐋—6 days ago
BUYNO$14.1K@ 94.0¢
thoodr0x3eae…e2ed
🐋—7 days ago
BUYNO$10.9K@ 93.0¢
tourists0xc6dd…4b9f
🐋—18 days ago
SELLNO$14.6K@ 92.0¢
NonceChaser0xb1ca…1705
🐋—26 days ago
SELLNO$36.3K@ 92.0¢
davisb120xdf17…97d1
🐋—about 1 month ago
SELLNO$10.4K@ 93.0¢
AngryRhino0xdf70…5e92
🐋—about 2 months ago
BUYNO$11.6K@ 91.0¢0xeba4…69fb🐋—about 2 months ago
BUYNO$51.8K@ 89.0¢
MisTKy0x35bb…009b
🐋—about 2 months ago
BUYNO$93.9K@ 88.0¢
WordleAddict0xe25b…0f1b
🐋—about 2 months ago
BUYNO$35.2K@ 88.0¢
MisTKy0x35bb…009b
🐋—about 2 months ago
BUYNO$13.2K@ 88.0¢
ScaryDream0xd8e5…b808
🐋—about 2 months ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

thoodrNo$29.2K
BUY VWAP 94.2¢·6 fills
touristsNo$11.9K
BUY VWAP 94.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.