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Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?

● quote 10s ago
Finance→Geopolitics→CommoditiesCloses: 2 monthsLiquidity: $116.0KOfficial 24h Vol: $41.8KEvent: Crude Oil all time high by...?

Indicative prices · 10s ago · Buy/sell quotes are shown in the orderbook.

13.5¢
YES
86.5¢
NO
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets33Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 53%💡 3 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:11 trades$4.9K trackedsource coverage 12%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 222 min agoofficial metadata 6 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:NO · $15.6K net·3 wallets·$17.6K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYNO$24.9K@ 91¢·Alex8008

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
$0
6h
−$86
tracked
$4.9K

3 verified profitable wallets: NO · $15.6K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 53% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 222 minutes old.
  • •Rules, deadline or market status changed recently; re-read the current definition.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2027-01-01 04:59 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/energy/crude-oil/light-sweet-crude.quotes.html
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Yes" if, on any trading day after market creation, the official daily high price published by the CME Group for the Active Month (front month) of CME Crude Oil (CL) futures is greater than $147.27 by the final trading day on or before the specified date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Read full resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, on any trading day after market creation, the official daily high price published by the CME Group for the Active Month (front month) of CME Crude Oil (CL) futures is greater than $147.27 by the final trading day on or before the specified date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example, if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration. This market will resolve as soon as a high price greater than the listed value is published, or once finalized data for the final trading day of the specified time period is published and a high price greater than $147.27 has not been achieved. The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website (https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/energy/crude-oil/light-sweet-crude.quotes.html) — specifically, the daily "High" prices for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures. If finalized data for the final trading day of the specified time period has not been published on the CME Group website within 14 calendar days (ET) of the end of that period, this market will resolve based on the data published through all CME Group channels up to that point.

Recent definition/status changes
RULES CHANGED · 47d ago

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY NO@ 90.0¢18d ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp6h STALLED +0.0pp24h STALLED +0.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY NO@ 91.0¢21d ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp6h STALLED -1.0pp24h STALLED -1.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY NO@ 91.0¢22d ago
15m STALLED -2.0pp1h STALLED -2.0pp6h STALLED -1.0pp24h STALLED -1.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY NO@ 89.0¢36d ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp6h STALLED +0.0pp24h STALLED +0.0pp

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor YES; negative values favor NO. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hYES · $0
6hNO · $86
24hYES · $4.1K

YES price VWAP

Volume-weighted YES price. NO fills are converted to the complementary YES probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current13.5¢
VWAP 24h14.45¢▼ below by 0.9pp
VWAP 7d12.33¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

Loading…

YES price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$71
10¢
← now
$258.0K
5¢
$36.3K
0¢
$0

VPOC = 10¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…
Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYNO$12.4K@ 87.0¢
JabJabich0xa927…8d9f
🐋—10 days ago
BUYNO$21.9K@ 90.0¢
Alex80080x92ea…3741
🐋—18 days ago
BUYNO$24.9K@ 91.0¢
Alex80080x92ea…3741
🐋—21 days ago
SELLNO$11.7K@ 90.0¢
657657570x2974…9c23
🐋—22 days ago
BUYNO$19.4K@ 90.0¢
657657570x2974…9c23
🐋—22 days ago
SELLNO$10.7K@ 88.0¢
89343948390x88c4…129a
🐋—26 days ago
BUYNO$16.7K@ 88.98¢
657657570x2974…9c23
🐋—about 1 month ago
BUYNO$12.9K@ 88.0¢
89343948390x88c4…129a
🐋—about 1 month ago
BUYNO$17.3K@ 86.0¢
657657570x2974…9c23
🐋—about 1 month ago
SELLNO$13.6K@ 80.15¢
XAEA12Archangel0xfbfd…0029
🐋—about 2 months ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

ThanksGivingTurkey1001No$16.4K
BUY VWAP 88.29¢·2 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.