PolyScope
ScreenerCategoriesEventsLarge TradesWallets🐋 Top Whales⚡ Early MoversSignalsSmart MoneyPortfolioWatchlist🔔 Alerts

US federally charges Cuba leader Miguel Diaz-Canel by December 31?

● quote 1 min ago
Geopolitics→Closes: 4 monthsLiquidity: $27Official 24h Vol: $20Event: US federally charges Cuba leader Miguel Diaz-Canel by...?
52.5¢
YES
47.5¢
NO
69.0¢
Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets0Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution1Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 75%
24h sample:6 trades$17.9K trackedsource coverage 100%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 846 min agoofficial metadata 9 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYNO$4.0K@ 80¢·nvdaqqq

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
$0
6h
$0
tracked
$17.9K

No verified profitable-wallet confirmation in the observed sample.

Can it be executed?
69.0¢displayed spread

Expensive before size: wait for tighter quotes or reduce size.

Data confidence 75% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Only 6 tracked trades / 1 wallets in the 24h sample.
  • •Observed tape is 846 minutes old.
  • •Spread is 69.0¢ before size-dependent slippage.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2027-01-01 04:59 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: Not supplied by the market
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States federal government formally charges or announces a criminal indictment of Cuban President Miguel Diaz-Canel between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Read full resolution rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States federal government formally charges or announces a criminal indictment of Cuban President Miguel Diaz-Canel between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from US governmental sources, however a wide consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.discovery

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor YES; negative values favor NO. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hYES · $0
6hYES · $0
24hNO · $13.9K

YES price VWAP

Volume-weighted YES price. NO fills are converted to the complementary YES probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current52.5¢
VWAP 24h27.1¢▲ above by 25.4pp
VWAP 7d27.1¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

Loading…

YES price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$2.0K
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
← now
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$15.9K
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 20¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…
Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
No whale activity

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
15.5¢$743.8Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will Hassan Shariatmadari be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
0.1¢$421.8Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31?
99.0¢$258.4Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?
0.1¢$190.7Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?
84.0¢$184.0Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?
19.5¢$174.2Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?
0.3¢$159.5Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?
2.8¢$155.0Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

nvdaqqqNo$15.9K
BUY VWAP 79.5¢·4 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.