Will Nigel Farage win at least 80% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?
Decision read
Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation
YES pressure: +$6.0K YES-equivalent flow in 1h.
2 verified profitable wallets: −$2.7K YES-equivalent over 7d.
Workable spread; verify depth and the $10K slippage estimate below.
Data confidence 61% · priority 0
Since latest accumulation: -18.0pp at executable prices.
Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.
- •Executable quote is 26 minutes old.
- •Observed tape is 59 minutes old.
The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from YES or execution deteriorates.
Resolution & market truth
Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis
Read full resolution rules
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Clacton is expected to be held soon following the announced resignation of incumbent Nigel Farage. This market will resolve according to the share of valid votes Nigel Farage wins in the Clacton parliamentary by-election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the specified candidate does not compete or the results of the specified election are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Tendring District Council (https://www.tendringdc.gov.uk/) and the UK Parliament (https://www.parliament.uk/).
Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.
Evidence receipts
Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible
Price History
Signals Trend
Market Analytics
Signed Order Flow
Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.YES-equivalent VWAP
Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.Largest holders
YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d
VPOC = 50¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC
Observed net position building
Related Markets · same event first, then category
Observed whale buys · 7d
Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome
Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.