PolyScope
ScreenerCategoriesEventsLarge TradesWallets🐋 Top Whales⚡ Early MoversSignalsSmart MoneyPortfolioWatchlist🔔 Alerts

Will Shailene Woodley – “Paradise” win Emmys 2026: Outstanding guest actress in a drama series?

● quote just now
Culture→Closes: 8 daysLiquidity: $1.2KOfficial 24h Vol: $5.7KEvent: Emmys 2026: Outstanding guest actress in a drama series
99.9¢
YES
0.8¢
NO
0.4¢
Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets17Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution70Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 75%💡 1 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:10 trades$23.6K tracked10% 🐋source coverage 100%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 106 min agoofficial metadata just now
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYYES$11.2K@ 100¢·GlobalMuffin

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
$0
6h
+$23.6K
tracked
$23.6K

1 verified profitable wallet: YES · $0 net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.4¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 75% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Observed tape is 106 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-09-14 20:00 UTC
Event constraint
Mutually exclusive
Resolution source: Not supplied by the market
Read full resolution rules

The 78th Primetime Emmy Awards, given by the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences, honor the best in American prime time television programming aired between June 1, 2025, until May 31, 2026. The awards ceremony is scheduled for September 14, 2026, at the Peacock Theater in Downtown Los Angeles, California This market will resolve according to the person who wins the 2026 Emmy award for “Outstanding guest actress in a drama series”. If for any reason no winner is declared by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or in case of overall cancellation or a tie for winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominee which comes first in alphabetical order. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences and the Emmys, including data from their websites (e.g. https://theemmys.tv/, https://www.televisionacademy.com/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor YES; negative values favor NO. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hYES · $0
6hYES · $23.6K
24hYES · $23.6K

YES price VWAP

Volume-weighted YES price. NO fills are converted to the complementary YES probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current99.9¢
VWAP 24h99.8¢▲ above by 0.1pp
VWAP 7d99.8¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

Loading…

YES price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$23.6K
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 95¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…
Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYYES$11.2K@ 99.9¢
GlobalMuffin0xff1e…5e2d
🐋—about 2 hours ago

Related Markets · same event first, then category

No one announced as next James Bond?
23.8¢$131.0Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Kanye West performs in Russia by October 31?
22.0¢$81.0Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will Avengers: Doomsday be the top grossing movie of 2026?
5.5¢$75.4Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of 2026?
0.1¢$64.6Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026?
0.1¢$53.2Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?
1.5¢$43.0Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will Dune: Messiah get the most Oscar nominations at the 99th Academy Awards?
14.1¢$51priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will Michael be the top grossing movie of 2026?
2.7¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

GlobalMuffinYes$23.5K
BUY VWAP 99.8¢·4 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.