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LoL: FlyQuest vs LYON (BO3) - LCS Regular Season

● quote 55s ago
Sports→Closes: about 4 hoursLiquidity: $787.3KOfficial 24h Vol: $258.6KEvent: LoL: FlyQuest vs LYON (BO3) - LCS Regular Season
0.1¢
YES
100.0¢
NO
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection22Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets33Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution99Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 54%💡 1 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:78 trades$9.0K trackedsource coverage 3%BUY/SELL known 75%
tape 8 min agoofficial metadata 4 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYLYON (NO)$2.1K@ 99¢·0xbfbe…dc24

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

NO pressure: −$1.5K YES-equivalent flow in 1h.

1h
−$1.5K
6h
−$3.6K
tracked
$9.0K

1 verified profitable wallet: −$151 YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 54% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •BUY/SELL is known for 75% of tracked volume.
  • •Less than 4h remains; resolution risk is elevated.
  • •Rules, deadline or market status changed recently; re-read the current definition.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from NO or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
proposed
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-07-26 02:15 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://gol.gg/esports/home
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the LoL match between FlyQuest and LYON in the LCS Regular Season, initially scheduled for July 25 at 4:00PM ET. This market will resolve to "FlyQuest" if FlyQuest win the match against LYON. This market will resolve to "LYON" if LYON win the match against FlyQuest. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins. If the match ends in a forfeit, disqualification, or walkover (team withdraws before the start and the other wins automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://gol.gg/esports/home. However, if https://gol.gg/esports/home has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence. In cases where a team’s listed name includes minor discrepancies from the resolution source, this market will resolve based on the underlying real-world match rather than exact name matching. Recognizable abbreviations, alternate or erroneous spellings, sponsor tags, affiliate or academy designations, regional identifiers, and minor formatting differences will be treated as referring to the same team, provided the intended team can be clearly and uniquely identified within the relevant competition. If a listed team name has no reasonable connection to any participating team, or if it matches or could reasonably refer to another team in the same competition such that the intended team cannot be unambiguously determined, this market will resolve 50-50.

Recent definition/status changes
DEADLINE CHANGED · 2h ago
Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
0x0c15…2a2d2 linked markets · $549 gross
0xc69b…20762 linked markets · $363 gross
0x84ad…bfb73 linked markets · $356 gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Latest book event: YES DOWN 4.0pp · near-book depth $34 → $42 · 3s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

LifecycleMarket stage. discovery = low volume early stage. climax = high volume + price near resolution (>85% or <15%). resolving = deadline within 24h. active = normal trading.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h−$1.5K
6h−$3.6K
24h−$3.6K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current0.1¢
VWAP 24h26.5¢▼ below by 26.5pp
VWAP 7d26.5¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$482
50¢
$156
45¢
$971
40¢
$547
35¢
$1.4K
30¢
$5
25¢
$762
20¢
$14
15¢
$61
10¢
$4
5¢
$231
0¢
← now
$2.2K

VPOC = 0¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
No whale activity

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

No observed $10K+ whale buys

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.