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UFC Fight Night: Wellington Turman vs. Islam Dulatov (Welterweight, Main Card)

● quote just now
Sports→Closes: about 15 hoursLiquidity: $144.8KOfficial 24h Vol: $594.2KEvent: UFC Fight Night: Wellington Turman vs. Islam Dulatov (Welterweight, Main Card)
48.5¢
YES
51.5¢
NO
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection6Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets0Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 62%
24h sample:53 trades$19.7K tracked2% 🐋source coverage 3%BUY/SELL known 92%
tape 26 min agoofficial metadata 37s ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYWellington Turman (YES)$15.6K@ 13¢·0x477f…6c45

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

NO pressure: −$1.1K YES-equivalent flow in 1h.

1h
−$1.1K
6h
+$13.8K
tracked
$19.7K

No verified profitable-wallet confirmation in the observed sample.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 62% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 26 minutes old.
  • •Less than 15h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from NO or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
resolving
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-07-26 03:59 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.ufc.com/events
Read full resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Wellington Turman" if Wellington Turman is officially declared the winner of the fight against Islam Dulatov at UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Rountree Jr., scheduled for July 25, 2026. It will resolve to "Islam Dulatov" if Islam Dulatov is officially declared the winner. If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond August 8, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleMarket stage. discovery = low volume early stage. climax = high volume + price near resolution (>85% or <15%). resolving = deadline within 24h. active = normal trading.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h−$1.1K
6h+$13.8K
24h+$13.8K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current48.5¢
VWAP 24h16.0¢▲ above by 32.5pp
VWAP 7d16.0¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
← now
$1.3K
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$1.0K
10¢
$15.7K
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 10¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
BUYWellington Turman (YES)$15.6K@ 13.3¢0x477f…6c45🐋—about 2 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0x477f…6c45Wellington Turman$15.7K
BUY VWAP 13.3¢·2 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.