Will Ralph Norman be the new Republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?

● quote 125 min ago
Politics→Closes: about 23 hoursLiquidity: $34.4KOfficial 24h Vol: $6.7KEvent: South Carolina Republican Senate Special Primary Winner
28.0¢
YES
72.0¢
NO
2.0¢
Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets33Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution74Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 75%💡 1 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:17 trades$19.4K tracked6% 🐋source coverage 100%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 320 min agoofficial metadata 140 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYNO$11.7K@ 78¢·scottilicious

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
$0
6h
−$653
tracked
$19.4K

1 verified profitable wallet: −$13.3K YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
2.0¢displayed spread

Workable spread; verify depth and the $10K slippage estimate below.

Data confidence 75% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Executable quote is 125 minutes old.
  • •Observed tape is 320 minutes old.
  • •Official market metadata is 140 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
resolving
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-11 00:00 UTC
Event constraint
Mutually exclusive
Resolution source: Not supplied by the market
Read full resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the winner of the special Republican Primary for United States Senator from South Carolina, including any potential runoff. If no 2026 special South Carolina Republican Senate Primary takes place by November 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the candidate who is the official Republican nominee to contest the November 3, 2026 South Carolina U.S. Senate election. If the results of the special primary are not definitively known, or if there is no Republican nominee to contest the November 3, 2026 South Carolina U.S. Senate election, by November 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the South Carolina Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
scottilicious2 linked markets · $36.4K gross
0xefac…c9a12 linked markets · $1.7K gross
0x7e59…7b8b2 linked markets · $1.6K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

LifecycleMarket stage. discovery = low volume early stage. climax = high volume + price near resolution (>85% or <15%). resolving = deadline within 24h. active = normal trading.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h+$0
6h−$653
24h−$15.9K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current28.0¢
VWAP 24h22.2¢▲ above by 5.8pp
VWAP 7d22.2¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

Loading…

YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$4
25¢
← now
$662
20¢
$18.7K
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 20¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…
Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
BUYNO$11.7K@ 77.6¢
scottilicious0x000d…758e
🐋—about 16 hours ago

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
0.3¢$1.1Mpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will Tom Cotton win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
0.1¢$1.1Mpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will Tom Cotton win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
0.1¢$572.8Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will Elissa Slotkin win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
0.3¢$481.2Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
1.5¢$321.4Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will Josh Stein win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
0.1¢$291.3Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
0.1¢$255.6Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
0.8¢$253.0Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

scottiliciousNo$13.3K
BUY VWAP 77.8¢·2 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.