Will Real Salt Lake win on 2026-07-25?

● quote 11 min ago
SportsCloses: about 2 hoursLiquidity: $78.8KOfficial 24h Vol: $957.8KEvent: Portland Timbers vs. Real Salt Lake
11.5¢
YES
88.5¢
NO
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection5Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets31Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution83Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority47Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 66%💡 2 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:149 trades$52.2K tracked1% 🐋source coverage 5%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 18 min agoofficial metadata 13 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:NO $1.5K·2 wallets·$3.4K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYYES$18.3K@ 40¢·0x0cbe…1f4e

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

NO pressure: −$2.6K YES-equivalent flow in 1h.

1h
−$2.6K
6h
+$25.4K
tracked
$52.2K

2 verified profitable wallets: −$1.5K YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 66% · priority 47

Since latest large flow: -32.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • Executable quote is 11 minutes old.
  • Observed tape is 18 minutes old.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from NO or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
resolving
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-07-26 02:30 UTC
Event constraint
Mutually exclusive
Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming game, scheduled for July 25, 2026 If Real Salt Lake wins, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve "No". This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead. All markets will settle based on the official final result as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
0x0cbe…1f4e2 linked markets · $39.7K gross
swisstony2 linked markets · $2.7K gross
GoalLineGhost2 linked markets · $1.5K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

CROSS MARKET1h ago
Outcome checks pending
LARGE FLOWBUY YES@ 44.0¢2h ago
15m STALLED +1.0pp1h STALLED +1.0pp
Latest book event: YES DOWN 6.5pp · near-book depth $15$25 · 3s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleMarket stage. discovery = low volume early stage. climax = high volume + price near resolution (>85% or <15%). resolving = deadline within 24h. active = normal trading.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h$2.6K
6h+$25.4K
24h+$25.4K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current11.5¢
VWAP 24h42.8¢▼ below by 31.3pp
VWAP 7d42.8¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$57
60¢
$1.0K
55¢
$0
50¢
$416
45¢
$13.4K
40¢
$34.1K
35¢
$3.2K
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
← now
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 40¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
BUYYES$10.0K@ 46.0¢0xcdc1…bdd8🐋about 2 hours ago
BUYYES$18.3K@ 40.0¢0x0cbe…1f4e🐋about 2 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0x0cbe…1f4eYes$24.2K
BUY VWAP 40.7¢·2 fills
0xcdc1…bdd8Yes$10.0K
BUY VWAP 46.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.