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Spread: Los Angeles FC (-1.5)

● quote just now
Sports→Closes: about 2 hoursLiquidity: $47.9KOfficial 24h Vol: $392.6KEvent: Los Angeles FC vs. Sporting Kansas City - More Markets
97.8¢
YES
2.2¢
NO
0.4¢
Spread
anomaly1Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets100Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution73Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 53%💡 3 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:140 trades$51.4K tracked2% 🐋source coverage 13%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 47 min agoofficial metadata 3 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:NO $25.2K·3 wallets(1🐋)·$25.3K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYSporting Kansas City (NO)$22.8K@ 41¢·ferrariChampions2026

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
−$9
6h
−$4.7K
tracked
$51.4K

3 verified profitable wallets: −$25.2K YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.4¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 53% · priority 0

Since latest large flow: -38.6pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Observed tape is 47 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
resolving
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-07-26 02:30 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.mlssoccer.com/schedule/scores
Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming MLS game, scheduled for July 25 at 10:30 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Los Angeles FC" if Los Angeles FC win the game by 2 or more goals. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Sporting Kansas City". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50–50. This market will resolve according to the official final score published on mlssoccer.com. This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead. All markets will settle based on the official final result as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
0x0cbe…1f4e2 linked markets · $31.5K gross
ferrariChampions20262 linked markets · $23.2K gross
swisstony2 linked markets · $2.5K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Sporting Kansas City@ 41.0¢2h ago
15m STALLED -2.0pp1h INVALIDATED -15.0pp
Latest book event: NO DOWN 8.5pp · near-book depth $21 → $1 · 33s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleMarket stage. discovery = low volume early stage. climax = high volume + price near resolution (>85% or <15%). resolving = deadline within 24h. active = normal trading.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h−$9
6h−$4.7K
24h−$4.7K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current97.8¢
VWAP 24h59.2¢▲ above by 38.6pp
VWAP 7d59.2¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$9
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$152
65¢
$47
60¢
$12.2K
55¢
$38.8K
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 55¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
BUYLos Angeles FC (YES)$10.0K@ 61.0¢0xcdc1…bdd8🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYSporting Kansas City (NO)$22.8K@ 41.0¢
ferrariChampions20260xfe78…0319
🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYLos Angeles FC (YES)$12.8K@ 57.8¢0x0cbe…1f4e🐋—about 2 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

ferrariChampions2026Sporting Kansas City$22.8K
BUY VWAP 41.0¢·1 fill
0x0cbe…1f4eLos Angeles FC$12.8K
BUY VWAP 57.8¢·1 fill
0xcdc1…bdd8Los Angeles FC$10.0K
BUY VWAP 61.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.