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Los Angeles FC vs. Sporting Kansas City: O/U 3.5

● quote just now
Sports→Closes: about 2 hoursLiquidity: $38.5KOfficial 24h Vol: $116.7KEvent: Los Angeles FC vs. Sporting Kansas City - More Markets
57.0¢
YES
43.0¢
NO
2.0¢
Spread
anomaly28Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets33Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution75Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 69%💡 1 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:20 trades$20.8K tracked5% 🐋source coverage 18%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 21 min agoofficial metadata 2 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYOver (YES)$18.7K@ 53¢·0x0cbe…1f4e

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
+$37
6h
+$19.7K
tracked
$20.8K

1 verified profitable wallet: −$6 YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
2.0¢displayed spread

Workable spread; verify depth and the $10K slippage estimate below.

Data confidence 69% · priority 0

Since latest large flow: +3.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 21 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
resolving
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-07-26 02:30 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.mlssoccer.com/schedule/scores
Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming MLS game between Los Angeles FC and Sporting Kansas City, scheduled for July 25 at 10:30 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Over" if Los Angeles FC and Sporting Kansas City combine to score 4 or more goals in this game. If the combined total is less than 4, this market will resolve to "Under". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50–50. If the game is started but not completed, this market will resolve according to the official final score published on mlssoccer.com. This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead. All markets will settle based on the official final result as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
0x0cbe…1f4e2 linked markets · $31.5K gross
ferrariChampions20262 linked markets · $23.2K gross
swisstony2 linked markets · $2.5K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

ANTI CHASEBUY Over2h ago
Outcome checks pending
LARGE FLOWBUY Over@ 55.0¢2h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED +2.0pp
Latest book event: NO UP 4.5pp · near-book depth $2 → $1.1K · 1s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleMarket stage. discovery = low volume early stage. climax = high volume + price near resolution (>85% or <15%). resolving = deadline within 24h. active = normal trading.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h+$37
6h+$19.7K
24h+$19.7K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current57.0¢
VWAP 24h53.7¢▲ above by 3.3pp
VWAP 7d53.7¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$2
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$109
60¢
$103
55¢
← now
$1.4K
50¢
$19.1K
45¢
$0
40¢
$6
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 50¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
BUYOver (YES)$18.7K@ 53.5¢0x0cbe…1f4e🐋—about 2 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0x0cbe…1f4eOver$18.7K
BUY VWAP 53.5¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.