PolyScope
ScreenerCategoriesEventsLarge TradesWallets🐋 Top Whales⚡ Early MoversSignalsSmart MoneyPortfolioWatchlist🔔 Alerts

LoL: Top Esports vs ThunderTalk Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend

● quote 107 min ago
Sports→Closes: about 1 hourLiquidity: $858.6KOfficial 24h Vol: $2.1MEvent: LoL: Top Esports vs ThunderTalk Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend
100.0¢
YES
0.1¢
NO
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection32Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets33Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution99Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 63%💡 1 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:365 trades$128.1K tracked1% 🐋source coverage 6%BUY/SELL known 93%
tape 114 min agoofficial metadata 109 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYTop Esports (YES)$36.3K@ 68¢·111111111115

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

TOO LATE — DO NOT CHASE
What the tape says

YES pressure: +$38.4K YES-equivalent flow in 1h.

1h
+$38.4K
6h
+$63.4K
tracked
$128.1K

1 verified profitable wallet: +$130 YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 63% · priority 0

Since latest large flow: +17.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Executable quote is 107 minutes old.
  • •Observed tape is 114 minutes old.
  • •Official market metadata is 109 minutes old.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from YES or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
resolving
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-07-25 18:10 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://gol.gg/esports/home
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the LoL match between Top Esports and ThunderTalk Gaming in the LPL Group Ascend, initially scheduled for July 25 at 7:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "Top Esports" if Top Esports win the match against ThunderTalk Gaming. This market will resolve to "ThunderTalk Gaming" if ThunderTalk Gaming win the match against Top Esports. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins. If the match ends in a forfeit, disqualification, or walkover (team withdraws before the start and the other wins automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://gol.gg/esports/home. However, if https://gol.gg/esports/home has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence. In cases where a team’s listed name includes minor discrepancies from the resolution source, this market will resolve based on the underlying real-world match rather than exact name matching. Recognizable abbreviations, alternate or erroneous spellings, sponsor tags, affiliate or academy designations, regional identifiers, and minor formatting differences will be treated as referring to the same team, provided the intended team can be clearly and uniquely identified within the relevant competition. If a listed team name has no reasonable connection to any participating team, or if it matches or could reasonably refer to another team in the same competition such that the intended team cannot be unambiguously determined, this market will resolve 50-50.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
1111111111152 linked markets · $63.9K gross
0xc1c7…f0a72 linked markets · $36.8K gross
0x1e8c…64523 linked markets · $15.6K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Top Esports@ 83.0¢5h ago
15m STALLED -3.0pp1h CONFIRMED +7.0pp
Latest book event: YES UP 7.0pp · near-book depth $2.1K → $20.2K · 2s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleMarket stage. discovery = low volume early stage. climax = high volume + price near resolution (>85% or <15%). resolving = deadline within 24h. active = normal trading.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h+$38.4K
6h+$63.4K
24h+$63.4K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current100.0¢
VWAP 24h73.0¢▲ above by 26.9pp
VWAP 7d73.0¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

Loading…

YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$9.5K
90¢
$4.2K
85¢
$4.8K
80¢
$27.0K
75¢
$397
70¢
$4.5K
65¢
$58.3K
60¢
$11.7K
55¢
$0
50¢
$3.2K
45¢
$120
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 65¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…
Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
BUYTop Esports (YES)$36.3K@ 68.0¢
1111111111150xcd30…f316
🐋—about 3 hours ago
BUYTop Esports (YES)$24.0K@ 81.0¢
retroactivesource0x85d5…45ee
🐋—about 5 hours ago

Related Markets · same event first, then category

LoL: Top Esports vs ThunderTalk Gaming - Game 1 Winner
76.5¢$1.4Mpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
LoL: Top Esports vs ThunderTalk Gaming - Game 2 Winner
0.1¢$1.2Mpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Game Handicap: TES (-1.5) vs ThunderTalk Gaming (+1.5)
0.1¢$226.4Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
LoL: Invictus Gaming vs Weibo Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Nirvana
100.0¢$1.9Mpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will LeBron James play for the Philadelphia 76ers in 2026-27?
99.7¢$1.1Mpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will U.S. viewership of the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final be between 46 million and 50 million?
100.0¢$818.0Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will LeBron James play for the Miami Heat in 2026-27?
0.1¢$769.5Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
UFC Fight Night: Mike Davis vs. Nurullo Aliev (Lightweight, Prelims)
0.1¢$758.1Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

111111111115Top Esports$36.3K
BUY VWAP 68.0¢·1 fill
retroactivesourceTop Esports$24.0K
BUY VWAP 81.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.