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US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 24?

● quote 213 min ago
Geopolitics→Closes: about 1 monthLiquidity: $30.9KOfficial 24h Vol: $94.7KEvent: US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by...?
7.5¢
YES
92.5¢
NO
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly40Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection97Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets0Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution80Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority58Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 66%
24h sample:8 trades$4.1K trackedsource coverage 4%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 221 min agoofficial metadata 214 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYNO$4.1K@ 96¢·0x2549…74f7

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

NO pressure: −$4.0K YES-equivalent flow in 1h.

1h
−$4.0K
6h
−$4.0K
tracked
$4.1K

No verified profitable-wallet confirmation in the observed sample.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 66% · priority 58

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Executable quote is 213 minutes old.
  • •Observed tape is 221 minutes old.
  • •Official market metadata is 214 minutes old.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from NO or execution deteriorates.

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleMarket stage. discovery = low volume early stage. climax = high volume + price near resolution (>85% or <15%). resolving = deadline within 24h. active = normal trading.climax

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h−$4.0K
6h−$4.0K
24h−$4.0K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current7.5¢
VWAP 24h4.0¢▲ above by 3.5pp
VWAP 7d4.0¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
← now
$1.7K
0¢
$4.1K

VPOC = 0¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
No whale activity

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Verified directional wallets · 7d
No smart wallet activity