New York Yankees vs. Philadelphia Phillies

● quote 172 min ago
SportsCloses: 7 daysLiquidity: $263.8KOfficial 24h Vol: $292.0KEvent: New York Yankees vs. Philadelphia Phillies
56.5¢
YES
43.5¢
NO
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection5Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets33Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 69%💡 1 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:28 trades$54.3K tracked7% 🐋source coverage 19%BUY/SELL known 99%
tape 186 min agoofficial metadata 175 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYPhiladelphia Phillies (NO)$37.1K@ 57¢·0x5e94…5ba1

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

NO pressure: −$2.7K YES-equivalent flow in 1h.

1h
−$2.7K
6h
−$2.7K
tracked
$54.3K

1 verified profitable wallet: −$2.4K YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 69% · priority 0

Since latest large flow: -13.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • Executable quote is 172 minutes old.
  • Observed tape is 186 minutes old.
  • Official market metadata is 175 minutes old.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from NO or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
active
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-07-31 22:45 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.mlb.com/
Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming MLB game between the New York Yankees and Philadelphia Phillies, scheduled for July 24 at 6:45PM ET: This market will resolve to "New York Yankees" if the New York Yankees win the game. This market will resolve to "Philadelphia Phillies" if the Philadelphia Phillies win the game. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, or ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Philadelphia Phillies@ 57.0¢5h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY Philadelphia Phillies@ 57.0¢14h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp6h STALLED -2.0pp
Latest book event: YES UP 2.5pp · near-book depth $23.6K$13 · 5s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h$2.7K
6h$2.7K
24h$52.6K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current56.5¢
VWAP 24h43.2¢▲ above by 13.3pp
VWAP 7d43.2¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
← now
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$356
40¢
$53.1K
35¢
$500
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 40¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
BUYPhiladelphia Phillies (NO)$37.1K@ 57.0¢0x5e94…5ba1🐋about 15 hours ago
BUYPhiladelphia Phillies (NO)$13.2K@ 55.9¢0x5e94…5ba1🐋about 15 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0x5e94…5ba1Philadelphia Phillies$50.3K
BUY VWAP 56.7¢·2 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.