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Will New York Red Bulls win on 2026-08-01?

● quote just now
Sports→Closes: about 2 hoursLiquidity: $93.4KOfficial 24h Vol: $211.5KEvent: New York Red Bulls vs. Orlando City SC
68.5¢
YES
31.5¢
NO
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly99Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection2Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets94Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution78Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority62Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 70%💡 4 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:86 trades$45.8K tracked3% 🐋source coverage 22%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 7 min agoofficial metadata 4 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:YES +$26.9K·4 wallets(1🐋)·$28.7K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYYES$16.4K@ 41¢·WTSA

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

REVIEW YES SETUP
What the tape says

YES pressure: +$1.0K YES-equivalent flow in 1h.

1h
+$1.0K
6h
+$41.4K
tracked
$45.8K

4 verified profitable wallets: +$26.9K YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 70% · priority 62

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •No hard data-quality flag; still verify rules, news and orderbook depth.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from YES or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
resolving
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-01 23:30 UTC
Event constraint
Mutually exclusive
Resolution source: https://www.mlssoccer.com/schedule/scores
Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming game, scheduled for August 1, 2026 If New York Red Bulls wins, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve "No". This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead. All markets will settle based on the official final result as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
WTSA2 linked markets · $47.1K gross
GoalLineGhost2 linked markets · $1.3K gross
0x0d2d…7ff52 linked markets · $170 gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Latest book event: YES UP 9.0pp · near-book depth $209 → $2.2K · 1s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleMarket stage. discovery = low volume early stage. climax = high volume + price near resolution (>85% or <15%). resolving = deadline within 24h. active = normal trading.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h+$1.0K
6h+$41.4K
24h+$41.4K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current68.5¢
VWAP 24h42.4¢▲ above by 26.1pp
VWAP 7d42.4¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$57
80¢
$1.1K
75¢
$0
70¢
$152
65¢
← now
$2
60¢
$112
55¢
$42
50¢
$0
45¢
$45
40¢
$43.5K
35¢
$847
30¢
$0
25¢
$5
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 40¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
BUYYES$14.2K@ 40.5¢
beachboy40xc2e7…be51
🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYYES$16.4K@ 41.3¢
WTSA0x04d5…66d8
🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYYES$11.4K@ 42.0¢
WTSA0x04d5…66d8
🐋—about 2 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

WTSAYes$27.8K
BUY VWAP 41.6¢·2 fills
beachboy4Yes$14.2K
BUY VWAP 40.5¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.