Atlanta Braves vs. Baltimore Orioles

● quote 97 min ago
SportsCloses: 7 daysLiquidity: $32.7KOfficial 24h Vol: $288.6KEvent: Atlanta Braves vs. Baltimore Orioles
30.5¢
YES
69.5¢
NO
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly95Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets33Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 68%💡 2 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:104 trades$37.8K tracked2% 🐋source coverage 15%BUY/SELL known 99%
tape 107 min agoofficial metadata 98 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:YES +$83·2 wallets·$102 gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYBaltimore Orioles (NO)$18.2K@ 50¢·0xfe54…41d6

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

TOO LATE — DO NOT CHASE
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
+$160
6h
−$35.9K
tracked
$37.8K

2 verified profitable wallets: +$83 YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 68% · priority 0

Since latest large flow: +20.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • Executable quote is 97 minutes old.
  • Observed tape is 107 minutes old.
  • Official market metadata is 98 minutes old.
  • Executable BUY price moved 20.0pp since the latest alert; its original entry no longer exists.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
active
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-02 17:35 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.mlb.com/
Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming MLB game between the Atlanta Braves and Baltimore Orioles, scheduled for July 26 at 1:35PM ET: This market will resolve to "Atlanta Braves" if the Atlanta Braves win the game. This market will resolve to "Baltimore Orioles" if the Baltimore Orioles win the game. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, or ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Baltimore Orioles@ 50.0¢5h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h INVALIDATED -13.0pp
Latest book event: YES UP 8.5pp · near-book depth $24$6 · 1s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h+$160
6h$35.9K
24h$35.9K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current30.5¢
VWAP 24h50.4¢▼ below by 19.9pp
VWAP 7d50.4¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$16
85¢
$306
80¢
$0
75¢
$5
70¢
$50
65¢
$13
60¢
$70
55¢
$312
50¢
$36.4K
45¢
$36
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
← now
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 50¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
BUYBaltimore Orioles (NO)$17.9K@ 50.0¢0xfe54…41d6🐋about 5 hours ago
BUYBaltimore Orioles (NO)$18.2K@ 50.0¢0xfe54…41d6🐋about 5 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0xfe54…41d6Baltimore Orioles$36.1K
BUY VWAP 50.0¢·2 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.