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Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox

● quote just now
Sports→Closes: 7 daysLiquidity: $223.9KOfficial 24h Vol: $368.2KEvent: Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox
0.4¢
YES
99.6¢
NO
0.5¢
Spread
anomaly60Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection2Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets97Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution97Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 71%💡 3 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:47 trades$96.7K tracked4% 🐋source coverage 26%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 19 min agoofficial metadata 4 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:YES +$92.9K·3 wallets(2🐋)·$95.8K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYToronto Blue Jays (YES)$63.6K@ 44¢·0x3dfb…abaf

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

NO pressure: −$1.5K YES-equivalent flow in 1h.

1h
−$1.5K
6h
+$92.7K
tracked
$96.7K

3 verified profitable wallets: +$92.9K YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.5¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 71% · priority 0

Since latest liquidity absorption: -42.3pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Observed tape is 19 minutes old.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from NO or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
active
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-02 17:35 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.mlb.com/
Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming MLB game between the Toronto Blue Jays and Boston Red Sox, scheduled for July 26 at 1:35PM ET: This market will resolve to "Toronto Blue Jays" if the Toronto Blue Jays win the game. This market will resolve to "Boston Red Sox" if the Boston Red Sox win the game. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, or ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LIQUIDITY ABSORPTIONBUY Toronto Blue Jays@ 43.0¢2h ago
15m INVALIDATED -14.0pp1h INVALIDATED -38.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY Toronto Blue Jays@ 44.0¢2h ago
15m STALLED +3.0pp1h INVALIDATED -20.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY Toronto Blue Jays@ 44.0¢2h ago
15m STALLED +3.0pp1h INVALIDATED -20.0pp
Latest book event: NO UP 4.0pp · near-book depth $49 → $769 · 4s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h−$1.5K
6h+$92.7K
24h+$92.7K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current0.4¢
VWAP 24h43.4¢▼ below by 42.9pp
VWAP 7d43.4¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$286
40¢
$94.4K
35¢
$66
30¢
$0
25¢
$4
20¢
$32
15¢
$132
10¢
$7
5¢
$10
0¢
← now
$1.5K

VPOC = 40¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
BUYToronto Blue Jays (YES)$63.6K@ 44.0¢0x3dfb…abaf🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYToronto Blue Jays (YES)$30.8K@ 44.0¢
Feromont0xabb8…bba3
🐋—about 2 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0x3dfb…abafToronto Blue Jays$63.6K
BUY VWAP 44.0¢·1 fill
FeromontToronto Blue Jays$30.8K
BUY VWAP 44.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.