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FC Midtjylland vs. Beşiktaş JK: Team to Advance

● quote 315 min ago
Politics→Closes: about 8 hoursLiquidity: $32.9KOfficial 24h Vol: $93.5KEvent: FC Midtjylland vs. Beşiktaş JK - More Markets
0.1¢
YES
100.0¢
NO
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly2Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets0Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution87Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 54%
24h sample:17 trades$13.2K tracked6% 🐋source coverage 14%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 358 min agoofficial metadata 309 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYBeşiktaş JK (NO)$11.9K@ 63¢·0xa9ce…3117

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
+$6
6h
−$11.0K
tracked
$13.2K

No verified profitable-wallet confirmation in the observed sample.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 54% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Executable quote is 315 minutes old.
  • •Observed tape is 358 minutes old.
  • •Official market metadata is 309 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
resolving
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-07-30 17:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.uefa.com/
Read full resolution rules

In the UEFA Europa League qualifying tie between FC Midtjylland and Beşiktaş JK, with the deciding leg scheduled for July 30 at 1:00 PM ET: This market will resolve to "FC Midtjylland" if FC Midtjylland is the team that officially advances from this two-legged tie, based on aggregate score across both legs, to the next stage of the UEFA Europa League. This market will resolve to "Beşiktaş JK" if Beşiktaş JK is the team that officially advances from this two-legged tie to the next stage of the UEFA Europa League. This includes advancement after regulation, extra time, a penalty shoot-out, or an official ruling by the competition organizer such as forfeit, abandonment, or disqualification. If either leg is postponed, this market will remain open until the tie has been completed or a team is officially declared to advance. If the tie is canceled entirely and no team advances, this market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead. All markets will settle based on the official final result as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Latest book event: YES DOWN 4.0pp · near-book depth $3 → $0 · 22s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
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Market Analytics

LifecycleMarket stage. discovery = low volume early stage. climax = high volume + price near resolution (>85% or <15%). resolving = deadline within 24h. active = normal trading.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h+$6
6h−$11.0K
24h−$11.0K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current0.1¢
VWAP 24h36.5¢▼ below by 36.5pp
VWAP 7d36.5¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$5
40¢
$0
35¢
$12.1K
30¢
$938
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$144
5¢
$0
0¢
← now
$6

VPOC = 35¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
BUYBeşiktaş JK (NO)$11.9K@ 63.0¢0xa9ce…3117🐋—about 9 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0xa9ce…3117Beşiktaş JK$11.9K
BUY VWAP 63.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.