New York Yankees vs. Chicago White Sox

● quote 47 min ago
SportsCloses: 7 daysLiquidity: $33.1KOfficial 24h Vol: $1.4MEvent: New York Yankees vs. Chicago White Sox
26.5¢
YES
73.5¢
NO
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets85Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution80Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority60Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 74%💡 5 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:272 trades$497.0K tracked3% 🐋source coverage 35%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 55 min agoofficial metadata 51 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:NO $86.8K·5 wallets(1🐋)·$102.1K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYChicago White Sox (NO)$153.0K@ 51¢·0xc3ac…b964

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

TOO LATE — DO NOT CHASE
What the tape says

YES pressure: +$1.2K YES-equivalent flow in 1h.

1h
+$1.2K
6h
−$368.6K
tracked
$497.0K

5 verified profitable wallets: −$86.8K YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 74% · priority 60

Since latest liquidity absorption: +19.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • Executable quote is 47 minutes old.
  • Observed tape is 55 minutes old.
  • Official market metadata is 51 minutes old.
  • Executable BUY price moved 19.0pp since the latest alert; its original entry no longer exists.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from YES or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
active
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-06 18:10 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.mlb.com/
Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming MLB game between the New York Yankees and Chicago White Sox, scheduled for July 30 at 2:10PM ET: This market will resolve to "New York Yankees" if the New York Yankees win the game. This market will resolve to "Chicago White Sox" if the Chicago White Sox win the game. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, or ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
swisstony2 linked markets · $676 gross
0xbca0…97052 linked markets · $362 gross
0x212b…0ba52 linked markets · $40 gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LIQUIDITY ABSORPTIONBUY Chicago White Sox@ 55.0¢2h ago
15m INVALIDATED -5.0pp
WHALE FOLLOW THROUGHBUY Chicago White Sox@ 58.0¢2h ago
15m INVALIDATED -8.0pp1h INVALIDATED -13.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY Chicago White Sox@ 50.0¢2h ago
15m CONFIRMED +7.0pp1h INVALIDATED -26.0pp
LIQUIDITY ABSORPTIONBUY Chicago White Sox@ 54.0¢2h ago
15m INVALIDATED -11.0pp1h STALLED +0.0pp
Latest book event: YES DOWN 2.5pp · near-book depth $5.9K$15 · 1s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h+$1.2K
6h$368.6K
24h$368.6K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current26.5¢
VWAP 24h49.1¢▼ below by 22.6pp
VWAP 7d49.1¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$1.4K
70¢
$88
65¢
$241
60¢
$1.6K
55¢
$4.3K
50¢
$74.1K
45¢
$411.5K
40¢
$2.4K
35¢
$486
30¢
$183
25¢
← now
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 45¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
BUYChicago White Sox (NO)$111.8K@ 51.0¢0xc3ac…b964🐋about 3 hours ago
BUYChicago White Sox (NO)$92.0K@ 51.0¢
ferrariChampions20260xfe78…0319
🐋about 3 hours ago
BUYChicago White Sox (NO)$153.0K@ 51.0¢0xc3ac…b964🐋about 3 hours ago
BUYNew York Yankees (YES)$31.4K@ 50.3¢0xe907…cff6🐋about 3 hours ago
BUYChicago White Sox (NO)$17.8K@ 50.0¢
xifutloong30x2dc1…b33c
🐋about 3 hours ago
BUYChicago White Sox (NO)$18.2K@ 50.0¢
xifutloong30x2dc1…b33c
🐋about 3 hours ago
BUYNew York Yankees (YES)$22.8K@ 46.0¢0xe907…cff6🐋about 3 hours ago
BUYChicago White Sox (NO)$11.5K@ 52.0¢0x7542…7a20🐋about 4 hours ago
BUYChicago White Sox (NO)$19.6K@ 52.0¢0x7542…7a20🐋about 4 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0xc3ac…b964Chicago White Sox$264.8K
BUY VWAP 51.0¢·2 fills
ferrariChampions2026Chicago White Sox$92.0K
BUY VWAP 51.0¢·1 fill
0xe907…cff6New York Yankees$54.2K
BUY VWAP 48.4¢·2 fills
xifutloong3Chicago White Sox$36.0K
BUY VWAP 50.0¢·2 fills
0x7542…7a20Chicago White Sox$31.0K
BUY VWAP 52.0¢·2 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.