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Bitcoin Up or Down on July 26?

● quote just now
Crypto→Closes: about 6 hoursLiquidity: $26.2KOfficial 24h Vol: $66.6KEvent: Bitcoin Up or Down on July 26?
86.0¢
YES
14.0¢
NO
2.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection53Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets0Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution71Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 38%
24h sample:35 trades$567 trackedsource coverage 1%BUY/SELL known 46%
tape 5 min agoofficial metadata 28s ago

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
−$136
6h
−$196
tracked
$567

No verified profitable-wallet confirmation in the observed sample.

Can it be executed?
2.0¢displayed spread

Workable spread; verify depth and the $10K slippage estimate below.

Data confidence 38% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Tracked source coverage is only 1%.
  • •BUY/SELL is known for 46% of tracked volume.
  • •Less than 6h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
resolving
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-07-26 16:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT
Read full resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Up" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Jul 25 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is lower than the final "Close" price for the Jul 26 '26 12:00 ET candle. This market will resolve to "Down" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Jul 25 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is higher than the final "Close" price for the Jul 26 '26 12:00 ET candle. If the final "Close" price for both of these candles is exactly equal on Binance, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

LifecycleMarket stage. discovery = low volume early stage. climax = high volume + price near resolution (>85% or <15%). resolving = deadline within 24h. active = normal trading.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h−$136
6h−$196
24h−$196

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current86.0¢
VWAP 24h78.6¢▲ above by 7.4pp
VWAP 7d78.6¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
← now
$17
80¢
$149
75¢
$4
70¢
$86
65¢
$2
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 80¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
No whale activity

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

No observed $10K+ whale buys

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.