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Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026?

● quote 71 min ago
Crypto→Closes: 5 monthsLiquidity: $145.7KOfficial 24h Vol: $90.0KEvent: What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?
52.0¢
YES
48.0¢
NO
2.0¢
Spread
anomaly82Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection15Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets33Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution86Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 53%💡 2 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:68 trades$11.1K trackedsource coverage 12%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 107 min agoofficial metadata 76 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:NO $272·2 wallets·$313 gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYYES$8.0K@ 48¢·0x919e…4e9b

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

YES pressure: +$1.6K YES-equivalent flow in 1h.

1h
+$1.6K
6h
+$428
tracked
$11.1K

2 verified profitable wallets: −$272 YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
2.0¢displayed spread

Workable spread; verify depth and the $10K slippage estimate below.

Data confidence 53% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Executable quote is 71 minutes old.
  • •Observed tape is 107 minutes old.
  • •Official market metadata is 76 minutes old.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from YES or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
active
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2027-01-01 05:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: Not supplied by the market
Read full resolution rules

This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) between November 24, 2025, 14:00 and December 31, 2026, 23:59 in the ET timezone has a final "Low" price equal to or lower than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Low" prices available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT, with the chart settings on "1m" for one-minute candles selected on the top bar. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance BTC/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
0x6131…fd162 linked markets · $2.6K gross
0x3f3b…1d772 linked markets · $2.5K gross
0x6fec…4c722 linked markets · $224 gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h+$1.6K
6h+$428
24h−$3.3K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current52.0¢
VWAP 24h53.5¢▼ below by 1.5pp
VWAP 7d51.0¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$15.6K
50¢
← now
$11.6K
45¢
$32.2K
40¢
$13.6K
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 45¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
No whale activity

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

No observed $10K+ whale buys

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.