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Seattle Mariners vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 7.5

● quote 44 min ago
Sports→Closes: about 3 hoursLiquidity: $28.1KOfficial 24h Vol: $111.4KEvent: Seattle Mariners vs. Texas Rangers
99.9¢
YES
0.1¢
NO
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets5Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution16Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 74%💡 1 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:7 trades$40.0K tracked43% 🐋source coverage 36%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 64 min agoofficial metadata 44 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYUnder (NO)$16.3K@ 54¢·Talvez10

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

TOO LATE — DO NOT CHASE
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
$0
6h
−$19.8K
tracked
$40.0K

1 verified profitable wallet: −$3.6K YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 74% · priority 0

Since latest large flow: +45.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Executable quote is 44 minutes old.
  • •Observed tape is 64 minutes old.
  • •Official market metadata is 44 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
proposed
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-07-25 23:15 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.mlb.com/scores
Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming MLB game between the Seattle Mariners and Texas Rangers, scheduled for July 25 at 7:15 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Over" if the Seattle Mariners and Texas Rangers combine to score 8 or more runs in this game. If the combined total is less than 8, this market will resolve to "Under". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. To know when a postponed game will be played, please check the home team's schedule on MLB.com for the listed team and look for the game described as a makeup game. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
ferrariChampions20262 linked markets · $28.8K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Under@ 55.0¢4h ago
15m INVALIDATED -5.0pp1h INVALIDATED -37.0pp
Latest book event: YES UP 18.0pp · near-book depth $7.7K → $32 · 56s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

LifecycleMarket stage. discovery = low volume early stage. climax = high volume + price near resolution (>85% or <15%). resolving = deadline within 24h. active = normal trading.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h−$0
6h−$19.8K
24h−$19.8K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current99.9¢
VWAP 24h46.7¢▲ above by 53.2pp
VWAP 7d46.7¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$2
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$24
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$40.0K
40¢
$0
35¢
$2
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 45¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
BUYOver (YES)$10.1K@ 46.0¢
ferrariChampions20260xfe78…0319
🐋—about 4 hours ago
BUYUnder (NO)$16.3K@ 54.0¢
Talvez100xa710…23c4
🐋—about 4 hours ago
BUYUnder (NO)$13.6K@ 52.0¢
ferrariChampions20260xfe78…0319
🐋—about 4 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

Talvez10Under$16.3K
BUY VWAP 54.0¢·1 fill
ferrariChampions2026Under$13.6K
BUY VWAP 52.0¢·1 fill
ferrariChampions2026Over$10.1K
BUY VWAP 46.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.