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China x Philippines military clash before 2027?

● quote 15s ago
Geopolitics→Closes: 3 monthsLiquidity: $92.0KOfficial 24h Vol: $66.9KEvent: China x Philippines military clash before 2027?
26.5¢
YES
73.5¢
NO
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets0Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution92Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 50%💡 1 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:1 trades$1.2K trackedsource coverage 2%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 1432 min agoofficial metadata 7583 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYNO$12.1K@ 69¢·0xffd3…7c75

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
$0
6h
$0
tracked
$1.2K

1 verified profitable wallet: NO · $3 net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 50% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Only 1 tracked trades / 1 wallets in the 24h sample.
  • •Tracked source coverage is only 2%.
  • •Observed tape is 1432 minutes old.
  • •Official market metadata is 7583 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2027-01-01 04:59 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: Not supplied by the market
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Philippines between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Read full resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Philippines between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as melee weapons, missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Philippine military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not. Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however, Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) is not. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Recent definition/status changes
DEADLINE CHANGED · 36d ago

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY NO@ 75.0¢43d ago
15m INVALIDATED -4.0pp1h INVALIDATED -4.0pp6h INVALIDATED -3.0pp24h INVALIDATED -6.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY NO@ 71.0¢44d ago
15m STALLED -2.0pp1h STALLED -2.0pp6h STALLED -3.0pp24h STALLED -2.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY NO@ 71.0¢46d ago
15m STALLED -2.0pp1h STALLED -3.0pp6h STALLED -3.0pp24h INVALIDATED -4.0pp

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor YES; negative values favor NO. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hYES · $0
6hYES · $0
24hNO · $1.2K

YES price VWAP

Volume-weighted YES price. NO fills are converted to the complementary YES probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current26.5¢
VWAP 24h26.0¢▲ above by 0.5pp
VWAP 7d27.2¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

Loading…

YES price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$17.3K
25¢
← now
$40.9K
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 25¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…
Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYNO$12.1K@ 69.0¢0xffd3…7c75🐋—27 days ago
BUYYES$11.9K@ 34.0¢
LlamaLoco00000x93fb…3e4a
🐋—about 1 month ago
BUYNO$39.7K@ 78.2¢
hdlisme-acc20xaef2…df3d
🐋—about 1 month ago
BUYNO$13.1K@ 69.0¢
budu1000x43b4…ec9c
🐋—about 1 month ago
BUYNO$17.2K@ 67.0¢
gmtrader0xa18c…d792
🐋—about 2 months ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

No observed $10K+ whale buys

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.