Philadelphia Phillies vs. Baltimore Orioles

● quote 61 min ago
SportsCloses: 7 daysLiquidity: $214.8KOfficial 24h Vol: $209.0KEvent: Philadelphia Phillies vs. Baltimore Orioles
43.5¢
YES
56.5¢
NO
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection38Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets15Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority56Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 68%💡 2 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:35 trades$26.2K tracked6% 🐋source coverage 13%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 68 min agoofficial metadata 64 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:NO $6.0K·2 wallets(2🐋)·$26.0K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYBaltimore Orioles (NO)$16.0K@ 52¢·ferrariChampions2026

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

YES pressure: +$10.0K YES-equivalent flow in 1h.

1h
+$10.0K
6h
+$10.0K
tracked
$26.2K

2 verified profitable wallets: −$6.0K YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 68% · priority 56

Since latest large flow: +5.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • Executable quote is 61 minutes old.
  • Observed tape is 68 minutes old.
  • Official market metadata is 64 minutes old.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from YES or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
active
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-07 23:05 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.mlb.com/
Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming MLB game between the Philadelphia Phillies and Baltimore Orioles, scheduled for July 31 at 7:05PM ET: This market will resolve to "Philadelphia Phillies" if the Philadelphia Phillies win the game. This market will resolve to "Baltimore Orioles" if the Baltimore Orioles win the game. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, or ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
0x2d67…36672 linked markets · $10 gross
0x7761…f5042 linked markets · $7 gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Baltimore Orioles@ 52.0¢3h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED +0.0pp
Latest book event: YES DOWN 4.0pp · near-book depth $85$925 · 2s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h+$10.0K
6h+$10.0K
24h$6.0K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current43.5¢
VWAP 24h48.0¢▼ below by 4.5pp
VWAP 7d48.0¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$14
50¢
$0
45¢
$26.1K
40¢
← now
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 45¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
BUYPhiladelphia Phillies (YES)$10.0K@ 48.0¢0xf559…f462🐋about 2 hours ago
BUYBaltimore Orioles (NO)$16.0K@ 52.0¢
ferrariChampions20260xfe78…0319
🐋about 7 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

ferrariChampions2026Baltimore Orioles$16.0K
BUY VWAP 52.0¢·1 fill
0xf559…f462Philadelphia Phillies$10.0K
BUY VWAP 48.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.