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Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cleveland Guardians

● quote 40 min ago
Sports→Closes: 7 daysLiquidity: $211.4KOfficial 24h Vol: $180.4KEvent: Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cleveland Guardians
99.9¢
YES
2.0¢
NO
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection3Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets100Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution30Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 68%💡 4 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:53 trades$22.9K tracked2% 🐋source coverage 13%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 44 min agoofficial metadata 41 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:NO $1.8K·4 wallets·$1.8K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYArizona Diamondbacks (YES)$19.8K@ 44¢·SDTrading

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

TOO LATE — DO NOT CHASE
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
−$678
6h
+$17.3K
tracked
$22.9K

4 verified profitable wallets: −$1.8K YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 68% · priority 0

Since latest large flow: +72.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Executable quote is 40 minutes old.
  • •Observed tape is 44 minutes old.
  • •Official market metadata is 41 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
proposed
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-07 23:10 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.mlb.com/
Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming MLB game between the Arizona Diamondbacks and Cleveland Guardians, scheduled for July 31 at 7:10PM ET: This market will resolve to "Arizona Diamondbacks" if the Arizona Diamondbacks win the game. This market will resolve to "Cleveland Guardians" if the Cleveland Guardians win the game. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, or ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Arizona Diamondbacks@ 28.0¢3h ago
15m STALLED -2.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp
Latest book event: YES UP 3.0pp · near-book depth $104.8K → $5.3K · 23s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h−$678
6h+$17.3K
24h+$17.3K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current99.9¢
VWAP 24h43.6¢▲ above by 56.3pp
VWAP 7d43.6¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$16
90¢
$584
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$19.8K
35¢
$6
30¢
$422
25¢
$1.9K
20¢
$145
15¢
$33
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 40¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
BUYArizona Diamondbacks (YES)$19.8K@ 44.0¢
SDTrading0x16bb…8492
🐋—about 4 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

SDTradingArizona Diamondbacks$19.8K
BUY VWAP 44.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.