PolyScope
ScreenerCategoriesEventsLarge TradesWallets🐋 Top Whales⚡ Early MoversSignalsSmart MoneyPortfolioWatchlist🔔 Alerts

Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on August 1?

● quote 28s ago
Crypto→Closes: about 17 hoursLiquidity: $29.9KOfficial 24h Vol: $64.2KEvent: Bitcoin above ___ on August 1?
99.8¢
YES
0.3¢
NO
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly51Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection2Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets33Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution86Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 66%💡 1 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:3 trades$2.0K trackedsource coverage 3%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 27 min agoofficial metadata just now
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYYES$2.0K@ 100¢·mulpodsa85

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
+$31
6h
+$2.0K
tracked
$2.0K

1 verified profitable wallet: +$2.0K YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 66% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Observed tape is 27 minutes old.
  • •Less than 17h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
resolving
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-01 16:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: Not supplied by the market
Read full resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title has a final "Close" price higher than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs. Price precision is determined by the number of decimal places in the source.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
mulpodsa852 linked markets · $2.1K gross
0x4aba…f7912 linked markets · $1.2K gross
0xc433…dc172 linked markets · $18 gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

LifecycleMarket stage. discovery = low volume early stage. climax = high volume + price near resolution (>85% or <15%). resolving = deadline within 24h. active = normal trading.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h+$31
6h+$2.0K
24h+$2.0K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current99.8¢
VWAP 24h99.8¢▼ below by 0.0pp
VWAP 7d99.8¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

Loading…

YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$2.0K
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 95¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…
Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
No whale activity

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on August 1?
3.4¢$115.4Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on August 1?
0.1¢$108.9Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on August 1?
96.7¢$94.2Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on August 1?
100.0¢$85.1Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on August 1?
100.0¢$62.6Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on August 1?
0.5¢$62.1Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in July?
0.1¢$256.8Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in July?
0.1¢$236.4Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

No observed $10K+ whale buys

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.