Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on August 1?

● quote 105 min ago
Crypto→Closes: about 17 hoursLiquidity: $18.8KOfficial 24h Vol: $83.7KEvent: Bitcoin above ___ on August 1?
96.2¢
YES
3.9¢
NO
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection58Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets0Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution82Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 65%
24h sample:22 trades$917 trackedsource coverage 1%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 112 min agoofficial metadata 110 min ago

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
+$535
6h
+$444
tracked
$917

No verified profitable-wallet confirmation in the observed sample.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 65% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Tracked source coverage is only 1%.
  • •Executable quote is 105 minutes old.
  • •Observed tape is 112 minutes old.
  • •Official market metadata is 110 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
resolving
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-01 16:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: Not supplied by the market
Read full resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title has a final "Close" price higher than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs. Price precision is determined by the number of decimal places in the source.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
0x4aba…f7912 linked markets · $1.2K gross
0xc433…dc172 linked markets · $18 gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

LifecycleMarket stage. discovery = low volume early stage. climax = high volume + price near resolution (>85% or <15%). resolving = deadline within 24h. active = normal trading.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h+$535
6h+$444
24h+$444

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current96.2¢
VWAP 24h95.9¢▲ above by 0.2pp
VWAP 7d95.9¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

Loading…

YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$861
90¢
$11
85¢
$27
80¢
$7
75¢
$11
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 95¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…
Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
No whale activity

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on August 1?
4.5¢$110.7Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on August 1?
0.1¢$110.6Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on August 1?
100.0¢$75.7Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on August 1?
100.0¢$62.6Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in July?
0.2¢$259.2Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in July?
1.0¢$215.2Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026?
29.5¢$131.6Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in July?
0.1¢$99.7Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

No observed $10K+ whale buys

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.