Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026?

● quote 33s ago

Crypto→Closes: 5 monthsLiquidity: $101.1KOfficial 24h Vol: $141.4KEvent: What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?

27.0¢

YES

73.0¢

2.0¢

Spread

anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets0Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution86Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 66%

24h sample:2 trades$90.5K tracked100% 🐋source coverage 64%BUY/SELL known 100%

tape 175 min agoofficial metadata 1 min ago

Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYNO$55.6K@ 74¢·0x42d1…dab6

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN

What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

−$90.5K

tracked

$90.5K

No verified profitable-wallet confirmation in the observed sample.

Can it be executed?

2.0¢displayed spread

Workable spread; verify depth and the $10K slippage estimate below.

Data confidence 66% · priority 0

Since latest large flow: +0.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence

•Only 2 tracked trades / 1 wallets in the 24h sample.
•Observed tape is 175 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution

active

Trading

Orders accepted

Deadline

2027-01-01 05:00 UTC

Event constraint

Not verified

Resolution source: Not supplied by the market

Read full resolution rules

This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) between November 24, 2025, 14:00 and December 31, 2026, 23:59 in the ET timezone has a final "Low" price equal to or lower than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Low" prices available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT, with the chart settings on "1m" for one-minute candles selected on the top bar. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance BTC/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow

0x6131…fd162 linked markets · $2.6K gross

0x3f3b…1d772 linked markets · $2.5K gross

neutralwave232 linked markets · $432 gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY NO@ 74.0¢2h ago

15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -2.0pp

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes

Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.

1h+$0

6h−$90.5K

24h−$90.5K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.

Current27.0¢

VWAP 24h27.0¢▲ above by 0.0pp

VWAP 7d27.0¢

Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢

90¢

85¢

80¢

75¢

70¢

65¢

60¢

55¢