Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026?

● quote just now

Crypto→Closes: 4 monthsLiquidity: $365.3KOfficial 24h Vol: $81.2KEvent: What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?

9.0¢

YES

91.0¢

2.0¢

Spread

anomaly1Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection1Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets0Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution86Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 65%💡 3 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot

24h sample:10 trades$1.6K trackedsource coverage 2%BUY/SELL known 100%

tape 28 min agoofficial metadata 8 min ago

Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:NO · $596 net·3 wallets·$636 gross

Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYNO$200.0K@ 80¢·notprofitabl

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN

What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

−$22

+$858

tracked

$1.6K

3 verified profitable wallets: NO · $596 net over 7d.

Can it be executed?

2.0¢displayed spread

Workable spread; verify depth and the $10K slippage estimate below.

Data confidence 65% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence

•Tracked source coverage is only 2%.
•Observed tape is 28 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution

OPEN

Trading

Orders accepted

Deadline

2027-01-01 05:00 UTC

Event constraint

Not verified

Resolution source: Not supplied by the market

Outcome meaning

•This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) between November 24, 2025, 14:00 and December 31, 2026, 23:59 in the ET timezone has a final "Low" price equal to or lower than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

Read full resolution rules

This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) between November 24, 2025, 14:00 and December 31, 2026, 23:59 in the ET timezone has a final "Low" price equal to or lower than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Low" prices available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT, with the chart settings on "1m" for one-minute candles selected on the top bar. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance BTC/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow

boyau747 linked markets · $86.3K gross

justdance7 linked markets · $73.2K gross

greater-fools6 linked markets · $52.3K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY NO@ 92.0¢11d ago

15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp6h STALLED +0.0pp24h STALLED +1.0pp

LARGE FLOWBUY YES@ 10.0¢11d ago

15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp6h STALLED -1.0pp24h STALLED -2.0pp

LARGE FLOWBUY NO@ 92.0¢14d ago

15m STALLED +0.0pp1h STALLED +0.0pp6h STALLED +0.0pp24h STALLED -1.0pp

ACCUMULATIONBUY NO@ 94.0¢14d ago

15m STALLED -2.0pp1h STALLED -2.0pp6h STALLED -2.0pp24h STALLED -3.0pp

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes

Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor YES; negative values favor NO. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.

1hNO · $22

6hYES · $858

24hYES · $1.5K

YES price VWAP

Volume-weighted YES price. NO fills are converted to the complementary YES probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.

Current9.0¢

VWAP 24h9.9¢▼ below by 0.9pp

VWAP 7d9.7¢

Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

Loading…

YES price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢

90¢

85¢

80¢

75¢

70¢

65¢

60¢

55¢

50¢

45¢

40¢

35¢

30¢

25¢

$160

20¢

$559.9K

15¢

$47.7K

10¢

$290.2K

5¢

← now

$432.4K

0¢

VPOC = 20¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…

Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago

Loading trades…

🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now

SELLNO$31.6K@ 90.0¢0x7b5c…4960🐋—2 days ago

BUYYES$10.0K@ 10.0¢

greater-fools0x216b…d8a5

🐋—3 days ago

SELLNO$10.1K@ 90.0¢

Lackvill0xb5aa…5bd7

🐋—4 days ago

BUYNO$24.2K@ 93.0¢

notprofitabl0x42d1…dab6

🐋—11 days ago

BUYNO$27.6K@ 92.0¢

notprofitabl0x42d1…dab6

🐋—11 days ago

BUYNO$26.9K@ 93.0¢

notprofitabl0x42d1…dab6

🐋—14 days ago

BUYNO$26.1K@ 92.0¢

notprofitabl0x42d1…dab6

🐋—15 days ago

BUYNO$46.7K@ 91.0¢

notprofitabl0x42d1…dab6

🐋—15 days ago

BUYNO$27.9K@ 90.0¢

notprofitabl0x42d1…dab6

🐋—15 days ago

SELLNO$17.6K@ 90.0¢

herbertdudu0x273b…de09

🐋—16 days ago

BUYNO$73.3K@ 91.7¢

howaboutsendit0x7dd3…4ae7

🐋—19 days ago

SELLNO$71.0K@ 88.7¢

Mpire10x56ad…f13e

🐋—19 days ago

SELLNO$36.0K@ 90.0¢

Mpire10x56ad…f13e

🐋—20 days ago

BUYNO$36.4K@ 92.0¢

JnStrtPrdctnMrkts0x1465…7072

🐋—21 days ago

SELLNO$20.2K@ 91.0¢

tsihkodiives0x6db9…4ab5

🐋—21 days ago

BUYNO$13.0K@ 81.0¢

Tokor0xa19c…de6b

🐋—24 days ago

BUYNO$200.0K@ 80.0¢

notprofitabl0x42d1…dab6

🐋—26 days ago

BUYNO$76.8K@ 80.0¢

notprofitabl0x42d1…dab6

🐋—27 days ago

BUYNO$67.2K@ 79.0¢

notprofitabl0x42d1…dab6

🐋—27 days ago

BUYNO$71.1K@ 79.0¢

notprofitabl0x42d1…dab6

🐋—27 days ago

BUYNO$32.0K@ 80.0¢

notprofitabl0x42d1…dab6

🐋—28 days ago

BUYNO$59.3K@ 79.0¢

notprofitabl0x42d1…dab6

🐋—28 days ago

BUYNO$55.6K@ 73.7¢

notprofitabl0x42d1…dab6

🐋—about 2 months ago

BUYNO$34.9K@ 72.0¢

notprofitabl0x42d1…dab6

🐋—about 2 months ago

BUYNO$11.7K@ 79.0¢

tsihkodiives0x6db9…4ab5

🐋—about 2 months ago

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 by December 31, 2026?

5.5¢$105.8Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026?

0.3¢$94.5Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026?

19.5¢$92.6Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026?

7.5¢$85.0Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 by December 31, 2026?

31.5¢$79.7Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2026?

12.0¢$74.2Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Will Bitcoin dip to $25,000 by December 31, 2026?

2.3¢$67.3Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026?

40.5¢$66.5Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

greater-foolsYes$14.0K

BUY VWAP 9.7¢·3 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.